To: elmatador who wrote (2711 ) 8/9/2021 4:43:47 PM From: John Vosilla Respond to THE POST-COVID URBAN REVIVAL: WHAT’S NEXT FOR BIG CITIES? Today, more than four out of five people in the United States live in cities and urban areas. Over the country’s long history of urbanization, cities like New York, San Francisco and Chicago swelled not only in population, but also in their prominence as American cultural icons. That cachet helped these metropolises thrive even when economic conditions were challenging elsewhere, providing landlords and other commercial real estate stakeholders with a level of stability and security smaller cities couldn’t match. Brookings Institution study found that population growth in the country’s largest urban areas dropped by almost half through the 2010s.The COVID-19 pandemic amplified some of the disadvantages of living and working in densely populated cities and accelerated that migration. An October 2020 survey by freelancing platform Upwork found that as many as 23 million U.S. workers planned to move due to work from home flexibility, a near-term migration rate four times the usual level. Twenty percent of those planning to move were based in major U.S. cities. In San Francisco alone, 89,000 households have left the city, according to Public Comment in an analysis for USPS , and new office lease activity fell 71% in 2020 compared to the prior year, from 7.7 million to 2.2 million sq ft, according to Cushman & Wakefield . In New York City, January 2021 leasing volume was down 47% year-on-year, according to Colliers . The pandemic also boosted adoption of e-commerce, putting additional pressure on bricks-and-mortar retailers. Recent surveys have found that several years of e-commerce adoption has been compressed into a matter of months as a result of the pandemic.A December 2020 survey of 901 city governments by the National League of Cities found that almost 70% had seen a negative financial impact from the pandemic, with respondents reporting a 21% drop in revenue and a 17% increase in expenditures, on average. And while many individuals and businesses can relocate, landlords and other commercial real estate organizations don’t have that option—their fortunes are inextricably linked to the recovery wherever their properties are located. These commercial real estate stakeholders are facing unprecedented vacancy rates and an uncertain path to recovery as the pandemic retreats. Conclusion The actions of tech-industry behemoths reflect a fundamental truth: New York City and the Bay Area will recover as the effects of the pandemic wane and will continue to be dynamic engines of American culture, innovation and finance. Case in point: While New York City experienced a year-on-year decrease in overall real estate market activity over the course of 2020, it was also home to 20 of the biggest lease deals of 2020, totaling 6 million square feet. benefit from getting involved in activities that benefit their shared interests, such as lobbying state and federal governments for aid and collaborating on improvements that will make their city more desirable. bdo.com
