To: Maple MAGA who wrote (1300277 ) 5/12/2021 7:48:30 PM From: Wharf Rat 1 RecommendationRecommended By
Respond to Update day 2021Climate modelling Climate Science Instrumental Record — gavin @ 22 January 2021every year around this time we update the model-observation comparison page with an additional annual observational point, and upgrade any observational products to their latest versions.Climate model projections compared to observations 2009 , 2010 , 2011 , 2012 , 2015 , 2016 ) of model output comparisons to observations across a range of variables, we have now set up this page as a permanent placeholder for the most up-to-date comparisons. We include surface temperature projections from 1981, 1988, CMIP3, CMIP5, and satellite products (MSU) from CMIP5, and we will update this on an annual basis, or as new observational products become available. For each comparison, we note the last update date.Hausfather et al. (2020) made a more complete assessment of previous model projections from 1970 through to CMIP3 ( discussed here ).Hansen et al (1981) Original discussion (figure courtesy of Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Hansen et al. (1981) ). Observations are the GISTEMP LOTI annual figures and 10 year mean. Last updated: 25 Jan 2021. Hansen et al (1988) Original discussion (2007) , Last discussion (2018) . Scenarios from Hansen et al. (1988) . Observations are the GISTEMP LOTI annual figures. Trends from 1984: GISTEMP: 0.21ºC/dec, Scenarios A, B, C: 0.34, 0.28, 0.15ºC/dec respectively (all 95% CI ~±0.03). Last updated: 22 Jan 2021. CMIP3 (circa 2004) Last discussion (2015) . Model spread is the 95% envelope of global mean surface temperature anomalies from all individual CMIP3 simulations (using the SRES A1B projection post-2000). Observations are the standard quasi-global estimates of anomalies with no adjustment for spatial coverage or the use of SST instead of SAT over the open ocean. Last updated 22 Jan 2021. CMIP5 (circa 2011) Last discussion (2015) . Model spread is the 95% envelope of true global mean surface temperature anomalies from all CMIP5 historical simulations (using the RCP4.5 projection post-2005). Forcing adjustment is updated from Schmidt et al. (2014) . Observations are the standard quasi-global estimates of anomalies with no adjustment for spatial coverage or the use of SST instead of SAT over the open ocean. Last updated 22 Jan 2021. As above, but using the blended SST/SAT product from the CMIP5 models produced by Cowtan et al (2015) instead of the pure SAT field. Note that this makes about a 0.05ºC difference in 2020 (compared to a 0.1ºC difference estimated from the forcings adjustment). Last updated 22 Jan 2021. TMT (global and tropical means) (timeseries and trends) Original discussion (Jan 2017) . Mid-troposphere satellite products from UAH, RSS, NOAA STAR (to 2019) and UW (to 2018). Model values use synthetic MSU/AMSU-TMT weightings, spread is 95% envelope of simulations. Last updated 22 Jan 2021. open thread . You can use these figures anywhere (with citation and link back to RealClimate).realclimate.org
