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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (171701)	5/14/2021 7:56:11 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By SirWalterRalegh Respond to of 218882

Yeah. Another idea that doesn't work... We went through all of that back in the 70's... Gerald Ford and his stupid WIN buttons... "whip inflation now"... as a campaign theme ? And "jawboning" inflation lower... which was just the Fed repeating their "we got this" lies a bit more often, and just as unconvincingly as insisting in the current proxy for that as "its just transitory"... That was never going to have a chance to change what "it" really was ? That can work with rates... because rates aren't constrained by counterparty costs. You can talk rates down, or threaten them down, but you can't talk someone into lowering their prices... when their costs are going up. Lying to people does often work... when they still have a reason to not suspect you are lying... and still have a reason to believe you might be worthy of trust ? But today its not just that the barn door has been left open... making closing it now pointless... its that the barn has burned down... When everything is a lie... and everyone knows it... you shouldn't expect lying to work... ? I do think you are correct... that there will be "efforts made" to prevent people from behaving as if there is inflation... when there is inflation... Price controls don't work... Lying to people about what things cost doesn't work... Lying to them about what the policy REALLY is also doesn't work, as reality tends to out... because numbers don't care about lies that gullible people might believe... Volker made it pretty clear, in the erly 80's... that inflation is not at all hard to control. IF you really want to control it...all you have to do is raise interest rates until it stops... and/or quit printing masses of new debt/money until it stops. They do not want or intend to do either of those, of course... but, if and when they do... things will get ugly fast... Neither will happen "soon", of course... which tells you, both... first, that we will get inflation, in spades... and second, that the inflation we get is the actual policy goal... and the rest just BS. Inflation is a tax increase... and Biden wants to increase taxes on everyone... without saying that... so inflation is the way he will do it. They'll get out there and "try' though... while pretendingwhatever it is might work... while knowing it won't... The rest, then... is about the impact those efforts that will be made... will have... which you can see as "obvious market manipulation"... So, when they do stupid things to try to control the price of iron... it looks like time to start shopping for iron suppliers... when stupid policy choices forces the iron suppliers to go "on sale" ? I did post, the other day... about Cathie Woods saying commodities are going to crash... After posting that... thought about it a bit more... and came up with two ideas... One seems obvious... that Wood's disporportionately bad performance is probably not a random walk... Less obvious, perhaps, that the source of the lack of randomness may not be flaws in Wood's process of selection... rather than Wood's tweaking people the wrong way. That seems more likely the right call, today... as the short interest is being addressed: Time For A Squeeze: Here Are Cathie Wood's Top Holdings Although I don't think you're going to see the Reddit crowd riding to rescue poor Cathie's picks... rather than pile on to the trade now that its been exposed. That's relevant in the evaluation of Wood's opinion re commodity stocks, too... as it iis clearly not just about "a trade"... or a clear eyed analysis of the markets... but something more personal... which is obviously true of and for the commodity gurus, too... particularly in the trade in silver and gold... where investors have been abused by market manipulations for a long time. So, was Woods just lashing out... hoping to land a blow ? Or hoping to deflect the markets stare elsewhere for a bit ? It's pretty clear that a lot of what she's said in the last week or two... has made her own situation vastly worse. She's been lampooned for failing to understand commodities... at all. Eyebrows raised by the claim that EV's will prevent oil rising above $70. That's so detached from market reality... that it has to cause considerable wonder that anyone that detached from reality has gained such a large following... given the obvious cluelessness ? Another interpretation is possible... as you suggest... that perhaps Woods has access to insider info on political leftists plans for "price containment"... and is only telegraphing a warning... that the "hit job is on" ? It would be nothing new to investors in the commodity space, of course... just more of the same old... But, putting on the same old hit on silver, again... will only cause a huge ramp up in investment demand for silver at lower prices ? I did note a change in the markets, today... as the indexes went higher... so did oil, and gold, and silver... When the markets move lower again... will the gains in the commodities be "stickier" than in industrials ? For now, I think the effort in spending capital trying to suppress commodity prices is over... Instead, now, it seems... they are allowing miners and oil producers to benefit as much or more than others, from good days in stocks. They are trading with the markets now, rather than always trading against them... which seems to be... is likely to be... a sea change that is engineered for purpose... Reality is... you can't that easily "unprint" money that's been printed and let loose in the wild... And, once the expectation is ingrained as an item of reality in market participants perception... ? They want inflation... and we are going to get it...