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To: Vattila who wrote (41097)	8/29/2021 9:04:03 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72138

This is a great exercise. Only 3 months since you posted it, and it seems that it is achievable to reach the "Optimistic" levels in all categories within 1 year with GM not far behind. But I am sure 4 years will not be a straight line, I tend to look at product categories and opportunities for 1 year, 2 years, I will give it some more thought and post my version. Anything beyond 2 years is just too hazy... But in light of what you posted on AnandTech, that TSMC committed itself to good supply of Zen 2, I think the dynamics with TSMC will be the key to the future. I hinted on this before, since both AMD and NVidia are fabless, their strength is in their designs and in their ability to negotiate supply. How is TSMC going to make those decisions? Say, the consumer graphics GPUs, 2022 generation: The high end both companies offer will be on 5nm TSMC (with AMD using some 6nm for stacking). Of the capacity TSMC devotes to graphics, NVidia would need to get 85% of that capacity to maintain share... Or actually, even more than 85% of N5, if AMD uses a combo of N5/N6 It's good to keep in mind that NVidia revenue just from consumer GPU is almost the same as the entire AMD revenue (~3.8 B per quarter).