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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ensco International Inc. (ESV) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: R.B.Williams who wrote (730)2/3/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2005
 
RBW,

The news of continuing shortages is good news, but the question is how long shortages will persist. For the most part, I feel more comfortable with offshore drillers than land drillers or oil service stocks, precisely because I think they will benefit from longer and more predictable supply shortages.

I think we're starting to see some differentiation between companies that should continue to favor offshore drillers. Even so, the stocks may have a bumpier ride by virtue of being lumped with land drillers and service companies as their business starts slowing. Similar to the obsession with crude oil prices, I think a strategy of picking up premium offshore players during weakness will work well over both the intermediate and long term. Short term is anybody's guess.

ESV and MDCO seem particularly attractive and low-priced. RIG and NE, though they carry higher current PE's, should benefit from accelerating growth and the biggest imbalance between high demand and a long term undersupply. It should keep their dayrates very strong. Since deep drilling projects tend to have long, multi-year contracts, the deep drillers have a particularly attractive long-term predictability. Recently, I've been trying to buy whichever seemed most oversold.

Good luck,

Baird

Baird