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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (171936)	5/18/2021 6:58:14 PM
From: Julius Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219431

Steve Mnuchin Takes 21% Haircut On Selling His $25 Million Manhattan Co-Op zerohedge.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (171936)	5/18/2021 7:09:52 PM
From: sense	3 Recommendations Recommended By elmatador Lee Lichterman III pak73 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219431

I have yet to see a proper effort made to address the current economic reality clearly... We brushed up against it with the look at iron miners... where the obvious fact is... every miner with China as a customer is down. That is not what you would see if the issue were China trying to punish "a supplier" as the messaging suggests... in which case that supplier would be down... and the others up to compensate. But, all are down... as I noted, that meaning China's economy is the issue... not the other stuff. Saw a chart validating that... showing China's economy / GDP spiked higher as the virus risk abated... up 40% in Q1, seemingly more than compensating for the March 2020 drop after a long lag.... but, that change very short lived... just a spike... that has now fallen by that same 40%... and perhaps more... But, I do not trust the source... or the data... to have sufficient resolution to make it useful as more than a validation of what we can guess at without reference to it... The virus wasn't the problem... but the cover-up of the pre-existing problems... That is perhaps a part of it... while it clearly also added additional systemic stressors. The issue of trade wars... is subsumed in the noise, now, of the near daily cadence of drums beating... But, who can tell what is "trade shifting"... or deliberate obstruction... and what is basic dysfunction caused by systemic atrophy... The issue apparent in the ports is perhaps instructive... telegraphed early on by the imbalances apparent in the distribution of shipping containers... with who knows how many being converted into god awful "tiny houses" that we're told are super cool... but aren't. The clunking and clanking noises emerging as the economy tries to move... sounds like it has rusted up... with all the WD-40 required to free it... still stuck on the boat that blocked the canal for a few days ? The economists assuring us "its transitory"... are probably right about some of that. The difficulty is... we don't live "on average" in the long term... we live in the here and now... My old saw... comes in handy at this point... replayed regularly for years, here on SI... That is what you should expect... from having crafted a brittle mercantilist trade structure... This is what ALWAYS happens... when the natural lubricity (of cooperation in commoni interest) that is required to facilitate functional systems of trade... is inherently excluded from the design of the system... with the slick and smooth... being replaced with abrasives... Mercantilist systems break this way... even without having any shock applied... simply as a function of wear imposing natural obsolescence. The initial boost you get from it at first... is short lived... while the friction immediately begins to wear... and continually grows as a problem unitl failure occurs. That is what you see, exactly, in China hammering Australia now... the abrasive functions ensuring the system of trade will never work, again, as it lured you into thinking it might as a routine at the outset... I don't think that means "it might take a little longer than we expected" to get back to where we were before. I think it means... there is no going back. There is only going forward... and in going forward, what is behind you is not useful any longer... What you see in performance of the old system right now... is as good as it ever gets... The failure mode... in any brittle system... is not linked to a reversible time arrow. When you drop the tea cup... you cannot undrop it and restore it to its prior utility ? Time functions in brittle systems... are that way. And, the system of trade we've created... is that way... Once the parts get "just a little" out of alignment... they cannot be simply put back into alignment... because the time dependencies don't allow that... And we are WAY beyond "just a little out of alignment"... the shock of the Covid likely ensures the old system of trade... will not be restored... and, layer on top of that... the emerging belligerance... makes is impossible.