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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (171952)	5/18/2021 8:39:46 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 219459

Agree re the focus... mostly. The only reason to sustain that interest in the iron... is that pure play sporting a > 12% yield... I tend to not care too much what you do to generate a 12% yield... as long as it is sustainable... and will be reduced in % over time mostly by share price appreciation... rather than it being forced through business degradation in parallel with share price reduction. As industrial everything is likely to be more challenged going forward than many expect... and prices likely to be more boyant than a couple of people at the Fed "expect"... even if perhaps in a "transitory" way ? That basic reality still happens in real time instead of "on average" over time also means... bad markets... and bad days in bad markets... might well expand that 12% yield with a share price decline... whatever the truth of the reason. I think it is true that China's economy has slowed dramatically... suddenly... and unexpectedly. Some of that is probably a simple function of emerging first... thus getting an artificial enhancement from external demand unmet by others, initially... which boost seems it evaporated suddenly as others emerged. Also suggests a similar pattern is likely to be repeated elsewhere... if less both up and down... and without any more delay than exists in the pace imposed by the Covid timing in different places. And, then... perhaps the Fed will prove right about "transitory"... only in relation to "recovery" rather than in relation to "inflation"... ? I doubt China's experience of the trend is likely to be unique... beyond the upside bump from first... I don't think market expectations are that we emerge... pop... and then immediately settle back down to a level lower than where we entered the Covid Contraction... but that seems to be what the evidence suggests is happening. The Fed seems to not understand how prices could rise... in spite of an expected lack of demand growth... when inflation doesn't require demand growth... only demand that is greater than the reduced ability to meet it with a reduce capacity ? Worth watching the indicators... for clues on macro... Worth watching the iron miner... for >12% yield that might well expand to a larger percentage. Mining is mining. Rocks is rocks. Profit and yield from mining iron... just as good as profit and yield from mining gold... and it tends to be vastly more sustainable over longer time periods. Should we expect to see gold going up... while iron goes down ?