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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (171971)	5/19/2021 11:54:31 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217588

Poking at technicals on daily charts today... Using DRD as a proxy for gold... and looking at the SPX The last time we saw a similar test of the SPX at the 50 MA was the first week of March... Back then... SPX down... DRD also down... where it made a bottom... as did the SPX. Today... the last five or six days trading... DRD up, up, up... new highs, sitting just below the highs from early January SPX, bump, rumble, bump... testing the 50MA... dropped below it, for a time... as it did in March... As I post this... back up to "sitting just on top of" the MA... But, obviously, for reasons "transitory" or not, behaving oppositely rather than moving in parallel as in March. Now, as in March, the SPX test of the 50 MA was foreshadowed in the trade a few days prior... Perhaps worth noting... In the March test, the bottoms in the index at and below the 50 MA split the pinch in the bollies... the first bump against the MA to the left of the pinch... the second test crossed the MA lower, to the right of the pinch, before rebounding and continuing higher... In the current test... both tests of the MA occur to the right of the bolly pinch... perhaps suggesting this is in fact not as likely to be met with a rebound moving back above the center line on the bollies... and carrying the market higher again. It looks more likely the market may sustain the trend to follow the lower bolly lower... Can't tell that, yet, today, of course... without seeing the end of trading today... and seeing what happens in the trade tomorrow... and subsequent days... Just sayin... I think that likely aligns with policy... as the market bubble inflation has intended to bridge the gap from "entering covid" to "the end of covid"... and other indicators in monetary policy suggest an interest in "normalizing" policy now... not meaning a "taper" event in the sense we've seen that discussed... but, perhaps a "taper" in the bubble driver and in bubble expectations in the stock market. I don't think that means "a crash" is intended... or overly likely... But, "never waste a crisis"... means the war drums pounding now give an excuse that's not one that puts the Fed in the crosshairs... I do think it means they might try to "back the market off" to the levels of Feb/Mar... around 3900... which would provide a lot more room to maneuver... in all elements of policy... with the markets not hanging on every word to decide whether to crash or test new highs... Pure rank speculation, of course... with the focus on gold shares and the SPX. How that links moves in other markets to the trade occurring in cryptos... I have no way to know... My guess, still... is that Basel III and June 21 matter more now than whatever it is going on in crypto space... which is less about Elon P&D efforts... and more about China's choices... One month away... from the "non event" on the 21st of June...