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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (4018)	2/3/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Respond to of 9719

DON'T BUY ON MIKE MURPHY' SAY SO...................... Haven't bot any bios....did pick up INTC. MM is often early, with horrible timing. Both his bio and tech Model Portfolios show losses. But, I take - so I read....Much thanks to you (and rocketman) for the enlightment. Commend you for your input on this thread. Very best, Don

To: Vector1 who wrote (4018)	2/3/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: Russian Bear	Respond to of 9719

V1, Thanks for your biotech thoughts (post 4016,) and for digging up that wonderful INCY gem of Rocketman's. I hope you are right about an imminent biotech rally. We can all use one, I imagine. Regards, RB

To: Vector1 who wrote (4018)	2/3/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: squetch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

V1, Wasn't there a hilarious Rman cockroach post? The Uncle Vincente post by CPM1 and your post about a certain "rat" are among my favorites on SI. I would be interested in your thoughts on the cordblood issue. What group did you use? Private message if you like. #$@#$ I can't spell. Do they have to make everything red?

To: Vector1 who wrote (4018)	2/10/1998 12:40:00 AM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Damn, that wasn't a bad analysis was it. It is dated though, Roy Whitfield broke down and bought a new BMW for instance, and HGSI seems to have disappeared from the radar screens as they hunker down for a long drug development process. I'm not sure if anyone posted any of the following, and I'm not going to read the last 1000 posts to find out, so excuse me if I'm redundant. Here's a few notes that I jotted down during Roy Whitfield's INCY presentation at the H&Q conference last month, a few other things I've heard, followed by a few of my predictions: They have 1 Million plus ESTs sequenced and patents applied for. 1998 committed revenue of $105M vs $88M in 1997, but they project that they will achieve $140-145M in 1998 with a profit of $20-22M ($0.70-0.75 EPS). I think that since they stated this, that they will beat it. Roy has a reputation for consistently understating what they will achieve and always exceeding his stated targets. He has a very strong philosophy of not creating expectations which will not be met and to INCY P&L is King. They have filed for 400+ full length gene patents and 42 have issued. They have issued 6000 royalty bearing licenses to their pharma partners (which is what transpires when they actually send you the DNA samples from the archives, what they call the reagent business, as opposed to you just playing with the data on computer = biology in-silico). Roy also commented at the annual meeting last year, subject to the forward looking protection clauses of course, that it has been predicted that about 1/3 of the new pharmaceuticals released in the 2005-2010 time frame will owe a royalty to INCY. They are now up to about 650 employees and are breaking ground on a new 95,000 sq ft building in Palo Alto as they are bursting at the seams. So, what are their current problems? Well, Randy Scott, President and Chief Visionary is working on how to take their little old $1 billion dollar company and make it a $10 billion dollar one. IMO if anybody can lead them to it, Randy can!!! Keep in mind that the history of Incyte is one in which virtually everyone kept telling him - you can't do it, it won't work yadda yadda yadda....... Well, they were wrong and Randy was right. INCY has exceeded everyone's wildest dreams, everyone except Randy Scott's that is. IMHO INCY is now a first tier biotech and is going to ultimately dwarf many of the industries biggest names. The critical mass is there and exploding rapidly. What's next? I predict that they continue to rapidly move into more efficient means of sequencing and that they may even develop their own advanced proprietary sequencing methods that they will keep to themselves - why feed the competition better sequencing methods and equipment? Who knows how to sequence better than them? No one. They do more of it faster and cheaper than anyone else and their internal knowledge should rapidly outstrip the internal capabilities of the likes of Perkin Elmer-ABI and MDYN. They have moved beyond waiting for ABI to improve the sequencers and moved ahead with things such as 96 well lane runs for instance. I figure that capillary sequencing and the next generation mass spec systems will be the standard for them sooner rather than later. It is still a gold rush, but INCY is digging with giant dredge systems and not using a hand shovel and pan like the rest of the world, and those dredges never stop...... Also, keep in mind that there is a lot more to high throughput sequencing than the actual running of the sequences, there is the front end sample prep and the back end bioinformatics. INCY deals with improving the whole process on both an incremental and quantum leap basis continually. As always, the above is based on my recollections, illegibly scribbled notes, my fantasies and dreams......don't take any of it as gospel - I'm just not a religious guy. Hanging onto INCY for the long trip to the stars..... Rocketman