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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (172608)	5/31/2021 3:04:48 PM
From: sense	2 Recommendations Recommended By Lee Lichterman III Pogeu Mahone Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218548

"What happens when the supply chain gets restored".... assumes it will be. I think that's an expectation in "pace" and "structure" that is more than incrementally wrong... Supply chains are not fungible... do not function like light switches. Expect to see huge downward revisions in growth numbers vs the expectations... while the costs of producing those reduced numbers likely to see huge upward revisions. Others anticipate a 4.7 growth rate... I think is likely to prove only half of that... for the same "juice"... The units in growth are not the point, still, without a proper accounting of the cost per unit... without which the inflationary impacts cannot be determined. The rest touts as an advantage the "delayed impact" of inputs reflected in metrics... as if that's a benefit ? It wrongly assumes Fed policy is still what matters in the cul de sac where it doesn't... it even points out the constraints... but then fails to apply the meaning of that constraint in future impact ? Debt as a policy driver based on rate change... depends on the rate change mattering in a future impact... rate changes taking 6 to 8 months to have any real impact in a normal market... but which impact it really doesn't have when there is no transmission effect. When the velocity of money is zero... what it would cost, incrementally differently, to borrow money that you don't borrow... doesn't matter ? So, the growth in debt continues... but what is it fueling if no one is borrowing to grow businesses ? The problem they're backed into... as money chases alternatives to participation in the debt based economy... seeking to get out before debt becomes worthless... includes that error in expectations in lagging functions. Debt is deflationary... in a normal market... but it is not deflationary when an exploding debt fails to fuel any leverage in economic activity... but instead monetizes already extant debt ? Borrowing $2 to produce $1 gain in growth... gives "growth" numbers provided in a metric that is irrelevant without accounting for cost. But borrowing $2 more to produce... a rolling over of a $2 debt for no other gain ? Rates are a slow fuze... having to "work through the economy" as a function of lending activity. Prices are a fast fuze. The post Covid boom in housing... saw house prices rise an initial 13%... and home sales fall 6%... numbers badly skewed by the disinflation of prices collapsing in urban areas... and rocketing higher in places people actually want to live... So, is that inflation... or deflation ? Its inflation... the price changes transmitted into the real economy NOW... not six months from now. The same is true, now, of oil prices. At $66... oil is $6 over a $60 "base case" ? That 10% driver is felt NOW... takes about 2 weeks to transmit through the economy... making rate changes with impacts 6 months away... assuming velocity of money is not still zero... irrelevant. "Pushing on a string" is called that for a reason ? Monetizing the debt... is not called anything... because they're trying to avoid talking about it...

To: carranza2 who wrote (172608)	5/31/2021 6:33:19 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218548

Re I dunno about the current debate re dis- / stag- / in- / de- / flations except what ever the camps are debating, have little to do w/ cars, medical insurance, tuition, grocery, club membership, property maintenance, ... books, ... essentially all spending, except perhaps computers and electronic gadgets, measured not quarter by quarter by over time useful for planning so whatever 'they' are debating about, I hold on to my gold and let the passage of time sort out the details.

To: carranza2 who wrote (172608)	6/2/2021 11:47:18 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218548

Martin intones ask-socrates.com Blog Gold has been building a base and as inflation has started to reappear, gold has been firming, although not breaking out just yet. We still need to see a Weekly closing above the 1976 level and the highest Quarterly close was 1895.50. A lot of people have moved from gold to the cryptocurrency world. This has also had an impact on reducing the interest. Then we have BASEL III and bureaucrats who always fight the last war. If London actually shuts down, then liquidity will decline and that means higher volatility becomes possible. Of course, the goldbugs keep preaching how the stock market will turn to dust and only gold will rise. They have been preaching this mantra since 1971. They seem incapable of understanding that gold is NOT money, it is a private asset now which means it will align with other private assets which is the opposite of how gold performs under a gold standard. When gold is MONEY that as the then as assets rise in value, the purchasing power of gold declines. Since gold is now an asset, it will rise with assets against the dollar. They still seem to think that gold is money and it will replace everything else. That is like thinking the world is still flat. Gold should bounce into June which historically has been a seasonal thing for gold. While it may then back off, the long-term prospects remain in play as gold will be the hedge against GOVERNMENT but keep in mind that governments are also hunting all wealth and that will make it hard for gold to become transportable.