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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (172621)	6/1/2021 3:31:46 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218548

Excellent. Agrees with Lacy Hunt in many significant respects, often for the same reasons.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (172621)	6/1/2021 2:44:31 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218548

Hmmm. I agree with the first paragraph, too... Total Debt to GDP is less in the U.S. than elsewhere.... which remains true even with the recent slip from a more rational policy into "drunken sailor" spending territory. Keep in mind that almost every aspect of public policy in economics and finance... is the opposite of what it is said to be in its real function ? QE is not money printing... but direct wealth transfer to the banks... that blocks also obstructs liquidity and imposes parallel constraints on the velocity of money in the economy. It is massively deflationary... which is why the Repo Crisis last year... fostered a global depression... masked by the virus, and minimized by belated recognition and reversal of policy imposing that outcome. Biden's spending is real enough "stimulus"... very pro-inflationary... as fully functional in fostering flows of money that will enable liquidity and accelerate the velocity of money... Except, Reverse Repo now sucks every dollar applied in that effort right back out of the economy immediately after its one allowed use... so the velocity of money is increased from zero, under QE/Repo, to 1 minus the GDP under Reverse Repo. The impact is still massively deflationary, over all, in the short term... but the headline number in a policy impact is never a proper indicator of the real, long term impacts of policy ? The focus on the dollar and the U.S. domestic economy... is a canard... as the dollar is not the U.S. currency, but the global currency... so the focus on the impacts in the U.S., merely distracts from GLOBAL transfer ? The ongoing suppression of the U.S. economy... is the driver of the global growth. The transfers include "benefits" for the U.S. in result of having the reserve currency... but, that benefit comes with a cost, which is the parallel suppression of U.S. domestic economic activity... "A strong dollar"... does that, in relative terms in trade ? But, that's a narrow public face on a much larger policy impact... not a full reveal of what this is about ... in the MOPE based opposite-land that is banker-speak ? The reality of that policy... requires that everything you are told to believe... is wrong. There is an "official view" of the economy presented... that has nothing to do with reality... and that includes the presentation of metrics tied to growth, or contraction, or inflation, disinflation, or deflation... The numbers are all cooked. One of the problems, in result... is that having cooked the numbers, over time, makes the numbers used "self referential"... so that the lie cannot be sorted from the truth, more, over time... which means the decision makers... not only deny you access to the truth as a point of policy... they also don't have that much of a clue what the truth is, themselves... more, over time... What could possibly go wrong ? That there "has been no inflation for 40 years"... is obviously untrue... requiring one to ask "what the point is" in proclaiming there is no inflation... while focusing on how and why the metrics are that badly broken to miss the flagrantly obvious and unavoidable... that badly. What did a Big Mac cost in 1980 ? What does it cost today ? So, where did the inflation go ? Silver, today, deemed the most undervalued asset there is... suffers from the time period selected, as 1980 saw the peak driven by the Hunt Brothers recognition that there was far more paper silver than real silver... back when the differential was still in single digits. But, in 1980, the chart looks like it maybe hit $38... from a base above $4 in 1976... and that base was lower, under $4, in 1992... Only hit $39 in the bull market run in 2011... that aborted revaluation being tied to the first attempt to implement the Basel rules... to end the fraud in the price suppression in the metals trade. "No inflation"... is not the same thing as "partially successful suppression of inflation metrics" ? The 2011 bull market in PMs was aborted... by the BIS and the banks... because the rising metals prices were causing banks to fail. The hiatus, since then, saw the fraud in the suppression effort sustained with renewed vigor... only with the suppression being more deliberately employed as a price manipulation scheme, not just to suppress metals relative to fiat to artificially sustain the fiat value in relative terms... but to enable the banks to use the price suppression to acquire the physical metals at the suppressed prices. That effort in acquisition drove the 2011 bull... and it's been ongoing since 2011 with the support of the suppression... in theory, with a time sequenced allocation in participation, to prevent the banks and nations from competing with each other and bidding up the price too much while they cooperate to acquire, during the price suppression period as authorized (and extended a couple of times)... which is why JPM, the largest paper short back then, is now the largest holder of physical, instead. Does that require PM holders interest is now fully aligned with the banks own self interest in fostering a re-pricing event? Probably... but, note, its not "just a trade" for the banks... but a trade they need to salvage the balance sheet carnage wrought by the GFC in 2008... and the black hole in derivatives... that has refused to dissipate as some had hoped... That 40 years of "no inflation"... might result in 40 years worth of the suppression of the recognition of inflation... suddenly being revealed, while being recognized all at once... seems not to occur as a possibility, to most people... who also, of course, dismiss PM price suppression schemes as "conspiracy theory"... even while the banks and the regulators are now openly admitting it ?