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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (172698)	6/2/2021 12:27:39 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218378

Your prior post... with all the charts ? Look at the one chart.... showing the velocity of money... and then reconsider all the others in context of their explanations... given the fact in the velocity of money being in a steady decline since 2001 ? Accept at face value that "they don't understand why there is no inflation" ? And then wonder... how could they know what the future will bring... when they don't understand why we have what we have now ? Now, in 2021... there is a TINY little uptick in velocity... insignificant relative to the chart... which has us suddenly experiencing 4% inflation ? Their explanations for that don't hold water... as they are clearly wrong about a number of forecasts re where the economy is going... why... and the rate at which it is going there. Growth... will NOT accelerate much from here... as no one trusts the economy enough to take risks. Chatted with a chef, here, today... who noted that, yes, the economy "is back"... The restrictions have been lifted, and he is back to "normal" in seating capacity... etc. But, he's not expanding hours to return them to what they were pre-pandemic... and he's not hiring any new people... which he knows he won't be able to do anyway... He's simply sustaining the status quo, for now... and making money again... Happy to be making money again, but has to make a lot of money just to compensate for the horror show endured over the last year and a half... and is not willing to believe that "its over" yet... knowing it might not be... also not willing to take any real risks, again... The demand in the economy "is back"... but the economy WILL NOT grow to replace what is lost... without a year or two of "digging out"... and "proof" that they're not going to try to kill it again... Demand up... supply... not willing to grow... The chef intends to remain loyal to his existing staff... and focus on meeting the needs of his loyal customers... without changing anything, now, that would cost him more than what he's doing now. But, food prices are up... and menu prices are going up to compensate... And that makes PERFECT sense... given the situation ? That's NOT "transitory"... because the market behaviors driving it... are not transitory... "Less"... costs more. The projections that the economy will roar back to pre-pandemic numbers in matter of months.,.. are wrong. That shift will take two to three years... Efforts made to accelerate the return of function... by funding forced changes in the economy in things energy... will make things vastly worse... by imposing declining efficiency... at higher prices. You might switch from power produced by wind energy instead of oil... but you won't do it while spending LESS ? And, the rest... is that the supply chains being brittle and having been broken... assumes, wrongly, that there is a unfettered interest in restoring them to prior function. There is not. There is, instead, an insistent response being delivered... to deliberately reduce risks that are avoidable... even at the greater cost inherent in the change... and even with greater delays being imposed by the choice. Give that one two to three years to resolve, also... with much higher costs imposed throughout that time... only in part because LESS... costs more. Also as change costs more... and delays cost more... And "more" is synergistic... driving a feedback loop...