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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2209)	2/3/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Carl H. Gotsch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, Are you again hedging this market with "quality" longs? Or have you decided to sit on cash? (I am going with the usual suspects: AMAT, INTC, CISCO, CPQ, etc. So far, so good. But I am nervous.) Your comments on strategy are always appreciated. Regards, Carl

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2209)	2/3/1998 9:24:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 18691

Re: XCIT, LCOS, YHOO. I know xcit and lcos are supposedly "undervalued" when compared to yahoo. However, given xcit and lcos recent runups I think they'll both make good short canidates when yahoo confirms it's downward trend. I believe this trend will be confirmed if yahoo fails to hit 68 again and crosses below 57 in the next week or two. With this is mind, I'm probably going to start shorting xcit if it get's above 50 tommorrow. Jim

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2209)	2/3/1998 10:24:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, Perhaps you could elaborate.on the historical relationship between current PE(1998) and expected earnings growth rate for 1999.That is, if a company has a PE of, say 15 and is expected to have locked in growth rate of 30%+ in 1999 then what would a "normal" historical stock yearly appreciation rate for EOY 1998 be?Also, what were PEs in the years following the 1929-32 crash? Here's a possible short.Rated 7 "strong buys" and #1 in it's sector on Yahoo research.But look at this chart! CKR iqc.com Almost a shooting star, followed by a hammer and finished off with a tweezers top on a 4th try at 45ish.Does it get any uglier? dave