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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (11212)	2/3/1998 9:50:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17305

One thing you have to understand about Andrew, Dale, Whenever anyone asks him a tough question he goes into a fetal position while the rest of us grok on his magnificence. (Though sometimes I hit the links for a round of golf.) So I would say you will have to wait a bit for the reply while he confers with Jerry Garcia and Baldwin, if you catch my meaning, if you get my drift. happy.tdyc.com This is just to keep you busy while waiting

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (11212)	2/3/1998 10:37:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV -- It is a profitable trade for me. I will take to close to 12 or 13 and then bail out. It may go further and with my luck in IOM, it will go much further. However, I am desperately trying to take 15-25% profits as many times as possible this year. As long as I have something else that looks attractive, I will be taking on more of a trader's stance in the market. Along the way, I am adding to some long term position for paydays down the road. ANAD and RMBS come to mind for 1999 plays while ADPT, CYMI, CFMT, ATMI, IDTI, PLAB, ASYT, IPEC and a few others are long term holds with some opportune short term profits taken along the way. The tech sector is very mixed these days. The analysts are presently contradicting each other and contradicting themselves. They have not figured out the real stories behind the Asian Crisis. This is a temporary down cycle in the roller coaster ride of the tech sector. There are bargains out there that can be taken for 10%-33% while they disagree amongst themselves. For the record, the future is in technology not in most of the DOW 30 stocks. Technology is the vehicle for the Pacific Rim to be a major player in the global economy and to improve the economic status of these nations. Without it, they will sink back into 2nd/3rd world economic status. They will forgo the cars, Nikes and Reboks for the DRAMs and consumer electronics. They will do everything in their power to keep the technology alive in their countries much like the heavy Japanese subsidy of the electronics industry in past years. The real Asian Crisis will be affecting the non electronic consumer goods and services as foreign imports increase to the United States due to favorable currency issues and the US exports to these countries start dropping off. this trade imbalance will not be borne by the semiconductor sector but rather the non tech companies everyone seems to be bidding up in the DOW. I see giving up Coke, MacDonalds, Burger King, Pizza Hut, and even Budweiser in Asia inorder to keep the household finances in check while making sure the kids have their PCs in order to compete in the world economy years from now. Putting in wireless communications in China and growing their infrastructure for internal microelectronic manufacturing is more important than making sure there is a Coke machine on every corner or a pair of Levis for every person. The same holds true for Eastern Europe and the upcoming EMU. Look at some of the new Mega Fabs being built in Dresden, Germany. The European community is establishing itself as a larger player in high tech each and every year courtesy of joint ventures with US companies and the emergence of some big European entities. I may not be stating it succintly but I believe the analysts and the DOW have not adequately discounted the market in the non tech sector and may have a rude awakening down the road when the REAL effects of the Asian crisis hit home in the DOW stock earnings. That is why, I am jumping around to take a slice of the pie wherever I can find it and not try to get the entire pie for myself. I am also looking for some conservative investments that can whether the storm that might be brewing and churning the profits into those stocks for "security" when the market goes stagnant again. On a final lighter note (since you got more than you asked for), The IOM investment from 9-12 is a 33% gain. At today's rates, that is 3-4 years worth of interest in the passbook savings account. Imagine taking the profits and churning them into some high dividend utility stock or something for the long haul. Kinda free money!!! Andrew