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Non-Tech : Tricon (YUM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: felix who wrote (30)	2/3/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67

Re: the article Joel said he was starting to look at Tricon now, but initially he shied away because it had such a following and so many analysts. He didn't disagree with analyzing Tricon as a spinoff but he said "that isn't what I was trying to do with the book" due to Tricon's popularity. I guess I would say I am confused by this aspect. The idea is that spinoffs tend to fall initially as people dump shares irrationally. This shouldn't be affected by the size or the relative non-obscurity of Tricon. In the days that led up to the spinoff, Barron's, the WSJ, and several leading money management firms all panned Tricon. My guess is that it would've fallen a lot further if Julian Robertson wasn't in there buying up 11% of the company. And analysts are generally apathetic towards it - I couldn't find many that thought it was a particularly good buy. It is telling that DLJ, when it downgraded the stock in January, mentioned the "rough 6 months ahead" whereas UBS when it upgraded the stock said "12 months from now, its troubles should be behind it." In general, this is a stock where a long-term view gets you a bargain and a short term view may net losses. I've taken a full position at 26.25 in one of the portfolios I manage - it can be viewed at sealpoint.com I am hoping for more bad news/a share fall so that I may pick up additional shares in other portfolios. Good Investing, Mike