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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (13866)	2/4/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Lisa: From yesterday my numbers were .76, .45, 1.08, .70, .99. These come from the nightly interactive WSJ. They came out to a 3.98. That is overbought. The ARMs index is clearly acting differently now. Below is its record since just after the October nosedive. Remember one more point. In general, when it is working, the ARMs index does not always let you know when to close any positions that you might have taken. The following tables are based on high points or low points after the signal. In some cases, you will see that the ARMs indicated a change of direction right on the dime. I am sure my little table will not look as nice as it does now. But I think you will understand it based on my other notes. 11/6/97----------4.01----------7673----to----7401 11/12/97--------6.48----------7401----to----8149 12/12/97--------6.81----------7838----to----7957 12/23/97--------6.51----------7691----to----7965 1/2/98------------3.72----------7965----to----7580 1/9/98------------8.54----------7580----to----7873 1/20/98----------4.00----------7873---to-----7700 2/2/98------------3.99----------8107---to----/\ /\ / In a number of the above examples, you would not have had the benefit of the entire point move because you would not have known the ARMs until the market closed. However for a nimble trader, I believe that a 300 point move should be profitable. In my opinion, the ARMs is now giving a reading that is against the short term and long term trend and that now makes it unreliable. However, I will continue to follow this indicator. There are things that could happen within the next few days that would again turn me quite negative on this market. But for now, who is afraid of the big bad bear.