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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27736)	2/4/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: H.Jablomey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

One piece at a time... how much will they spend to get to the 64 mb round? A very good question. As a preliminary, can we assume that the 64Mb market is going to be primarily SDRAM, and not EDO? Megs posted about a week ago, citing Chipworks, that MU's 64Mb SDRAM was 0.25um design rules and approx. 93 sq mm. Let's assume that they can produce small quantities as of today but can't yet produce in volume. What kind of cap-ex does it take to be able to produce these in volume? My bet is that it only requires 0.25um-capable steppers. Remember the PR from ASML last summer announcing that MU had placed a $150M order for steppers? Maybe the cap-ex has already been allocated and they're just waiting for delivery. (I must admit this is only conjecture.) btw, how many 64 mb parts does mu sell? are they in the top 50%? how much will it cost to get there? My former university roommate works at Dell. He's told me that as far as 64Mb PC100-compliant SDRAM parts are concerned, MU sells just as many as every other major manufacturer in the world...i.e. they're hard to get from anybody at this point. So are they in the top 50% ? In the only market that is going to matter in a few months, I'd say that they are...and it may (WARNING: more conjecture) only cost them the price of the steppers that they haven't already received. I'm still not going to buy the stock at this point, but I don't think that MU's demise is a slam-dunk. Does any of this seem plausible? Sam