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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (173194)	6/15/2021 12:55:28 AM
From: sense	Respond to of 217879

if packing for a long ocean journey on a big boat no point sweating the details too much... But, if undertaking a voyage, and going to be stuck on a big boat for a long time... would like to know that the fellow passengers are sociable enough group... to make the experience at least tolerable. Looking for a bit of quiet time... allowing me to read a book for entertainment... or perhaps, write one... avoiding the dangerous entertainments both of flighty young girls and icebergs... though... moderation in all things... not skimping on ice cubes, etc. SA appears not to have an activities director who will try to recruit me into volleyball... or a rappelling class... Karora, I noted recently, is among those values I like, but with a trading pattern making it obvious it would revisit the middle bands soon enough, rather than calmly track higher along the upper... and so is has. A bit more excitable crowd, there. Jauguar... great value... but the crowd of poker players there are sharks... seeking to defy predictability... hoping to make you pay for your entertainment rather than be rewarded by it... so, more demanding of time. Ultimately, the best choice in a soporific tonic is a firm understanding of the deeper calculus of valuation... rather than focusing only on the relative value apparent in the short term chart patterns... SA makes that fairly easy: lots of gold... and lots of copper... with enough value in the copper that it should pay for obtaining the gold. So, then, dependent on the prices of gold and copper over the next 50 years, and, before that... on the costs of finance in converting proven and probable into ounces and pounds produced... and scaling the effort and the pace versus timelines that matter in the market. SA is a very large deposit but low in grade... requiring a large-ish effort to obtain optimal economies of scale required to keep costs down, on average. Like PPTA and NG and others with lots of gold... too much gold makes it harder to finance a properly scaled effort... a wound which perhaps is easily healed by much higher prices. And, for SA, alone... that means higher copper prices will likely suffice... as they shall at TMQ. And, that is my focus, now... or, still... as it was in the use of ROE in the early screening... evaluating the other finalists for long term value... Don't expect too many surprises to emerge... the market is not totally stupid about value... but, there are a couple of weak spots in valuation of mining shares... that really boil down to laziness.... too few willing to do the work to actually crunch the numbers properly... or, otherwise, uncertain about how to crunch them... NFGFF has had quite a nice run. So, is it over-valued now... or simply over-due for a trading pause and, with others, a bit overdue for a bit of a consolidation trade ? Chart sure looks toppy... But, what's the value... and how does it compare to the others in the market... in terms of valuation ? And, of course, not forgetting that a market crash... which everyone seems to agree is overdue... will tend to take almost everything down with it... so, still have a need to sustain a bit of dry powder, and sustain the downside protection as best you can... while ensuring you profit from the direction in the trade... whatever that happens to be ? September, now... since the April/May crash "guarantee" didn't pan out ? Basel III changing the game... in a week... or in six months... or, not really, at all ? While the market focuses only on the Fed, and its navel gazing exercises... wondering when they might move from "not even thinking about thinking about" to only pretending to be "thinking about" tapering... in context of "transitory" not meaning what we seem to think it must mean, at all ? I wonder what those large black birds circling around in left field might be thinking... as they obviously are not caring a whit what Mr. Powell is thinking about... or not ? Am I the only one who can see them ?