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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (2216)	2/4/1998 6:17:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Doug, It sure seems like there is little reason to see the price rise above 25 and stay there. Maybe it could go higher, but to stay above 25 for 6 weeks seems unlikely to me. So, I'm looking to sell some March 25 calls also. Premium is not bad. I think it possible to get $2 and maybe a little if it goes up any tomorrow. I did sell March 30's today for 1/2. That seems like a very safe bet against shares I really don't want to let go. As most of you may know, I believe in INVX and hope to hold shares for the long term, but like you all, I wouldn't be watching this stock so closely if I wasn't also hoping to maximise my profits. A little call selling, and buying, seems to work real well. I don't base any of this on TA, but what I see as a difficult time for any stocks to sustain a rally. In the face of shrinking unit sales and falling platter count, I feel INVX will do well to stay flat. I believe they can do that, and maybe even continue to increase earnings, but the sector is in trouble and all boats rise and fall together. The fact that they bucked the trend today was encouraging, but can it last? Many will tell you that we've hit bottom and it's only up from here, but I wonder. The last report from WDC was anything but encouraging. The fact that they beat the estimate is total bullshit when you look at the right downs they took. WDC is in a difficult position, perhaps a fight for their life. Seagate also did better than the worst figures being thrown around, but it isn't good there either. Quantum has been basically saved from similar fates to the others because of their DLT tape business, which is also slowing. The best factor for INVX is the growth of second tier players and their potential for picking up the slack, but these guys are very hard to read as they hide all their figures in conglomerate reports that say little specifics about storage. Heads and media are also in trouble due to MR transition and over capacity. Sure, people look out 6 months, but as I look, it is still unclear. I'd like to see some action telling me that things in Asia are more stable before I'm going to take chances buying over my targets. Maybe I'll miss a few, but the downside risks are just too great. Still, getting back to options, it looked like many were selling today, but not in significant volume, and despite selling premiums were holding up. I really don't understand the logic of March 30's asking up to 3/4 or 7/8 at this point. So, to me, the market makers are letting the price high. I also noticed that they seemed to be helping the share price rise as well. In this case, I saw the ask go to 24 3/8 and sit there Then the prices came in splitting the spread and they had to lower the ask. Other days you'll see the price drop fast based on several 100 share trades and it'll take thousands to turn the momentum. Well, that's great when you want to see your stock go up, but it won't last. How do you decide when a stock is over bought? Is this an indicator for you? Anyway, I'm looking for the chance to sell some March 25's before the price drops off. Regards, Mark