First, I think clearly true Basel III has ALREADY changed the rules... as the article notes, it drove bank buying way back in 2017, but, which it ignores, that also almost caused the collapse of the banking system in 2011... hence the "pause" imposed that ended the prior bull run in gold, until now, with the purpose of giving banks more time to load up. The key point is... banks are acquiring gold... and manipulating the trade in order to do so... still meaning: "Accumulate" is the rule... but within a time frame metered in years to decades and not weeks to months.
Second, that banks are in acquisition mode... is clearly negative for prices... as it always is when the market powers that be want to own something they don't own... which has them work hard to make it "cheaper" as long as they continue to feel the need to own more... and if Snidely Whiplash needs to tie Polly to the railroad tracks to make it happen... so be it. The Mounties, of course, now a fully owned subsidiary of Snidely Whiplash Global Investment... leaving the rest up to GATA to expose the fraud... while officialdom snoozes.
So, the question in relation to Basel III timing has two distinct elements... one in the semi-transparent element in "when rules changes are supposed to be implemented"... with the "supposed to be" also critical, as this can has already been kicked down the road multiple times since 2011. The other component, though, is opaque... as it links the known in rules changes slated to occur with the unknown in the relative position of "the banks"... meaning the global cabal of all the banks... in relation to the systemic risks (to the banking system and its survival) that are the driver of the reason behind implementing rules changes... So, what risk is it that is being hedged against by the alteration of the relative value of gold in the banking system... and what might the nature of the risk and understanding it do to inform our perception of "other things"... including timing ?
A careful reading of the situation re the first element... would have you note the BIS pages listed June 21st as the date of implementation for Basel III rules in the U.S. and Europe... while the media now seem to be fostering the impression that it is NEXT week that should happen ? So, why did gold and silver suddenly implode LAST week into Friday ? I suspect foul play. Pretty sure I hear Polly screaming. But, also, the rules for the U.K. don't change until January 2022 ? The Comex has already transferred its delivery obligations to London... leaving lots of uncertainty about how controlling the changed rules are relative to contracts... that alter the delivery location. That's a joke, of course... the banks don't craft rules that they haven't pre-gamed. But, the impact on some NON-banks might be a different issue ? I think you perhaps won't see "real" impact in physical metals prices relative to "paper" pricing... until January. Price action like last week telling you... they're not done acquiring yet. But, perhaps it is a different set of risks that exist for the SLV and other "holders of physical" who don't make the rules... and don't follow bankers rules... but have to comply with honest reporting in the nature of what is held, in fact... and not hypothetically outside the reporting jurisdiction based on a contract with a bank... or between banks. Whether or not the "holding" fits into some loopholes in the bankers rules... doesn't alter reporting obligations re physical holdings in the U.S. in filers SEC reporting requirements ? The "paper" trade in the U.S. might be more or less transferable to the U.K., but, "the truth" of what "physical" is owned is not able to be as easily exported ?
There may be legal action required to prove the point... and there's only a six month timeline in any case ?
But, the full court press from the Fed this week... crashing the market, on purpose, to make gold and silver suffer more than other things ? LOL ! Most serious players have seen this game played too many times already... to be surprised by it... The world was ending on Friday ? But, this week, the Fed has a speaking tour set up... to talk stocks off the ledge ? As if it were really needed... Predictable as can be.
So, what does it mean for "inflation"... which has FALSELY been posed as the "risk factor" driving the market in gold and silver and gold and silver mining shares (versus currency debasement and market pricing frauds... and insolvent banker stupidity) after a generation long experience of exactly that brand of price suppression and fraud... being demonstrated, again, last week ?
I'd say what it means is... gold and silver investors need to recognize that OIL always outperforms gold and silver under "inflation". So, you should not only balance investments to account for that fact and generate a positive bias in relation to gold and silver interests... but also use oil pricing to IGNORE price manipulations in gold and silver... and follow price changes in oil as a far more viable and reliable indicator of "inflation" effects in the real economy... Rotate out of gold into oil... before they "whack" the gold... then back into gold once the "whack" has been applied...
Note, also, that interest rate changes are supposed to take two or three quarters to work influence on the economy... but that oil prices have near immediate impact in the real economy... taking no more than 30 days to fully reflect in alterations of market actors choices and future planning factors...
So, rapidly rising oil prices have far more real and immediate impact on the real economy than interest rates CAN have... which is only the more true in an environment in which banks have made themselves increasingly irrelevant over time by gutting the value and relative utility of their products and services...
The disconnects apparent in the last week... with the Fed announcing (future, fictional) rate increases ? Why does the Fed announcing "rate increases"... cause the 10 year to drop from 1.57 to 1.47... because of a "market crash"... that happened on Friday and was erased on Monday ?
So, I'd also generalize the oil issue... Not only is oil the proper focus to have in determining MARKET function in prices.... it also properly values stupid Fed tricks in a way gold seems unable to duplicate...
But, also, the other related market biases that exist are reflected differently in relation to that division ? The options trade in "market crash" issues like the VIX... are inflating the price of downside risk... while in oil, the opposite is true ? But, look what happened to oil in the last crash, in March of 2020 ? Oil declining was perhaps the canary in the coal mine leading into March of 2020... a role it cannot really play, now... as the "dead cat bounce" off the Covid coincident suppression of the markets after the March 2020 event... occurs with oil already throttled back to endure the demand reduction that is the ongoing legacy of that event ? So, oil will not be throttled back by the economy, now, as in 2019... but the economy by oil... as in the 1970's ?
But, if there IS another market event like that of March 2020... another accelerated entry into a deflationary depression as we saw in 2020... then, oil will go down, too... as activity responds to THAT market driver only as it is realized...
So, I'd say... if you think market Armageddon is right around the corner... ignore (crazy expensive) puts on the market... and place (really cheap) puts on oil... where the bias in the trade is very strongly invested in the opposite trend ? And, if you can't bring yourself to bet against oil... you don't really believe the market is going to crash... that hard ? Long oil, too, of course... my year end 2021 target price, and 2022-2023 target price from earlier this year, back when oil was still under $50... were $100 and $180... looking a lot less "crazy" now ?
But, silver in particular, is its own creature in the nature and scale of the disconnects in the market... that have so deliberately and thoroughly disconnected the silver supply from real demand... that even with another market crash throttling future demand... there is still not nearly enough silver being produced in the market to be able to sustain base level consumption... let alone meet expanding demand under "growth" in electronics... being made the core element in "recovery" narratives...
I'll not bet on the "recovery" narrative... without REAL corrections applied to fix broken market functions... but, straddling oil and long silver post January... while expecting another "larger" market reversal than the fake event last week... before that... ?
The wild card, of course, is "the reset"... and whatever it is that is planned as change in currencies... with Basel III only the hint of what's coming...
At some point... banks will reverse their trade... from price suppression of gold and silver... to pumping gold and silver... not only erasing a couple decades worth of price suppression... but pushing the trade in the opposite direction... to where you will see the better gold miners sporting multiples seen recently only in the "stocks everyone has to own"... whether they are priced rationally or not ? Few people alive now can remember when that has been true... that gold miners sported far above average market multiples?
The timing of the rules changes... not the same thing as the timing of the reversal in the trade ?
But, linkages between the timing of that trade... and the timing of "corrections" in the market... seems pretty likely... as the repricing event in gold and silver... is postured as the "out" from debts defined in worthless currencies... and the only thing you should expect from any such "reset"... is that it will mean that banks will want to have loans made in worthless currencies... be repaid in currencies that have real value...
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