It looks like PFGs marker maker is stepping into the frey. Levesque Beaubien has bought 71400 shares today and sold 26700 shares for a net increase of 44700 shares. First Marathon: Bought 40500, Sold 0. Salman: Bought 98500, Sold 60000 (this was a 60,000 share cross at $1.80. You are right Ric, Levesque Beaubien, First Marathon and Salman have all increase there position in the last two weeks.
Below is the calculation Shirley did in Dec. updated with todays values. ========================== Oculto Deposit To Date: SILVER VALUES
91.3 million ozs. according to July 10 release (Cut-off Grade .35) 34.7 million ozs. 38% increase in strike (Dec.4,1997 release) assuming continuity. +++++++++ 125,994,000 Total in situ ounces
104,575,020.00 ozs. Of silver (83% recovery rate.) 31,372,506.00 ozs. silver (PFG's Share 30%) X $7.01 (12:08 Eastern 2/4/98) ++++++++++++++ $219,921,267 U.S. (PFG's 30% Share)(This is a $38,431,320 increase since Dec 12)
GOLD VALUES
286,000 ozs. according to July report (Cut-off grade .35) 108,680 ozs. 38% increase in strike and assuming continuity of grades +++++++++ 394,680 Total in situ ounces
347,318 ozs. Of gold (allowing for an 88% recovery rate, Dec.4, 1997 news release) 104,195 ozs. Gold (PFG's 30% Share) X $298 (12:08 Eastern 2/4/98) ++++++++ $ 31,050,110. U.S. (This is a $1,375,374 increase since Dec. 12)
Total Value to PFG, assuming today's prices for gold and silver.
$219,921,267 U.S. $ 31,050,110 U.S. ++++++++++ $ 250,971,377 U.S. by 25,151,120 F.D. shares = $9.98/share (This is $1.59/share increase since Dec. 12)
If Barrick Walks we would get the 104,575,020.00 ozs. of silver and 347,318 ozs. of gold.
104,575,020 oz silver X $7.01 +++++++++++ $733,070,890
347,318 oz gold X $298 +++++++++++++ $103,500,764
$733,070,890 $103,500,764 +++++++++++++ $836,571,654 by 25,151,120 F.D. shares = $33.26/sh
This amount would be tempered by what Barrick would be willing to pay for silver in the ground, and with gold markets being what they are, what they would pay for gold in the ground. These figures are, of course, making some assumptions about the continuity and the price of both silver and gold. We also don't know the "fudge" factor of the actual amount of reserves for gold and silver. I just thought I would post this for the sake of discussion.
========================= In either case, PFG is a steal at a buck eighty
Best of Luck
Ross |