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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mattie who wrote (12168)	2/4/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

<< Craig, I hope you know what you're doing >> So do I! << This stock looks strong and should be a good performer over the next few years >> Stocks always look strong near the top don't they? What did A$ND look like at 80? Strong. As for the next few years, everybody assumes that the US economy will just grow and grow and grow forever and we will never have a recession again. << It is very dangerous to short without stop losses >> Not if you watch your stocks closely. << Cisco is the stock to own in the networking business >> I wholeheartedly agree C$CO is the one to own in the networking business---when I want to own networkers. I don't want to own networkers now. << and is taking market share away from all competitors >> That's the point I don't quite get. Cisco says that they continue to take market share from everyone, North America is strong and Europe is strengthening, yet they still come in with mediocre results! How do you explain that? What if North America starts to soften, Europe levels off or starts to turn south again? Will Cisco grow just 20% then? 15%? << Why not short the weaker stocks in the group? >> I have. COMS was my favorite because they were acting very weak and I doubted they would get taken over. A$ND is too risky to be bought for me to short and BAY is acting ok even though I don't like them either. I am still kicking myself for not shorting NN when it first crossed my mind. << I made good money shorting the 'second tier' networkers in 1997 >> As did I. << To be successful you have to admit when you are wrong. Everyone is wrong in this game at one time or another. >> I never said I wasn't wrong. I am wrong for the time being. I will continue to be wrong until C$CO turns lower and then I will be right. I will admit that shorting C$CO was my worst trade of 1998 so far. That doesn't mean I'm going to run out and cover though. I was shorting tech stocks back in November when the Dow rallied 750 points in 13 trading sessions. I was losing on my shorts but they all turned around and came back my way in December and January. I expect the same to happen with this short.