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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (174359)	7/6/2021 9:16:55 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 217948

Musings: Look at the CS.TO chart and ask the question about the "early entry" in an optimal post June 7 entry point? Depends on whether or not it goes up, from here ? And, for how long, how far it moves next and how fast? But, ask that same question 3 or 5 years from now... and assuming it proves true that we're at the beginning of a big multi-year up-cycle in commodities... with gold and silver having particular drivers emerging... that might finally end the long running efforts in suppression of prices ? I'm more than willing to miss a riskier early move... and make it up with trading acumen later on when markets are less risky in "big" ways... as more momentum driven than repeatedly whipsawed by the drivers of the noise causing the resistance to a more directional flow, but if the markets decline and miners go up ? Right now, I think the "noise" bashing silver and gold shares lower... is relatively temporary... and it might well be overwhelmed in a short period of time with a reversal in the relationships in correlations that exist now... even as, or more as, a short term trading potential. Some people are expecting gold and silver to make big moves "soon"... as part of a recognition that "its not transitory"... and that could happen "soon"... But, risk is still very high. There is larger risk still associated with"the wheels coming off" the entire market. And, as the survival of the banks appears it depends in some measure on these relationships... at least until AFTER there is some sort of a "reset" that solves the liquidity problems versus collateral problems in a way that removes conflict ? I expect the banks are likely to take the entire market down first... before they'll allow gold and silver to do what they clearly would do without the deliberate effort in suppression. I think that message was also "intended" as the object of taking everything else down "for a day" on June 7th ? So, timing questions... boil down to timing the reset, or attempts at it... and risk to the market as a whole ? Expect... crash first... then banks buy in at the lows... then maybe we get the reset ? And, January as a Basel III implementation marker... even as local impacts begin to occur in the U.S. and E.U. this week ? And, then... when "it" happens... it might be too late to take positions... in a devaluation scenario that resets the prices of PMs overnight... or "rapidly" ? That would be more true of physical metals than it would be of the shares, though ? How big a change in valuations is necessary in order to resolve the concerns they have about collateral quantity and quality ? "Collateral" as a buzzword related to Reverse Repo seems it is the new "transitory"... ? More on that later... So, ask how the banks are taking advantage of the trade... to convert Basel III rules to their advantage ? Accumulate... at the lows... ? But, what are the lows ? Only the banks know "the plan"... or "their plan" ? But, a known there is a plan... that includes various "reset" options... by various participants who may not all be on the same page... and may be in direct competition ? Or, may not have the ability or the authority to do what they're planning to do... while others might have a say... who aren't saying anything, now ? And, always the issue of pitchforks, tar and feathers, nooses and guillotines... infecting the bankers dreams. A known that the market is "long in the tooth"... being prevented from correcting by Fed intervention... A known that the banks know the plan, target prices and timing... and you don't... but trade against them ? Maybe 2020 was less about the virus... than using it as cover to impose "changes" on the market ? So, maybe we'll see something like that happen, again... if it is deemed necessary... at some point... between now and January 2022 ? Assume the banks won't lay the winning hand on the table... until there's enough on the table to make it worthwhile ? So, "soon" ? I'm taking a mixed approach... Traded things from April/May bottoms... got out near interim highs on many... and rolled into others that followed different timelines... out of some that proved themselves unworthy... and then, back into those better values discovered which had a bit more immediate bounce off the June 7 "takedown". Have set positions in what I think are some of the best long term holds... and in a few with short term trade issues that keep them isolated from the mainstream of the market... But the mining shares held are again less than 50% right now... I own no oil shares, currently... also hope to correct that with opportunities that might occur, soon... as oil certainly has outperformed gold and silver, big time, thus far... both as an inflation hedge... and as an economic recovery trade... that is insulated from much of the bankers clear interest in deliberately harming the trade in mining shares. The left's "green" plans... are a "can't get there from here" issue without vastly higher oil prices... and higher oil prices... imposed in part by preventing upstream operations... is a part of that plan... to make "green" appear competitive... in only at artificially high prices. Its moronic... but real. And, looking to buy more gold and silver... shares and physical... at the lows... assuming lower lows yet to come... and if not, then at the point where things are finally resolved with sufficient clarity to enable expecting a long term hold is not likely to have rugs... or floors... pulled from under it as a matter of routine...