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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (27762)	2/4/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, the FA work done by Earlie and Skeeter is sound in my opinion. The trouble is Micron is a trading sardine which does not always reflect the fundamental outlook. Another problem is we have a gullible public who thinks Wall St exists to make them money when they issue buy & sell recommendations. In my opinion, Micron will have a very difficult year and the stock will get hammered. I expect the loss in the current Q to be greater than the current estimates-I don't have a precise forecast it's just seems logical that if MU was marginally profitable last Q then this Q will be bad due to the substantial decline in ASP's in this current Q. CNBS always does a disclaimer when a short promulgates his view but I rarely hear the same disclaimer when a long ( especially Wall St analyst) promulgates his view or that a firm serves as an investment banker to the company under discussion. Remember certain analysts were considered to be gurus when they forecast MU would earn $10 to $17 per share in 1997. Larry and you other TA traders I respect and admire your ability to trade this sardine . Mike

To: TREND1 who wrote (27762)	2/4/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, after updating my sheets I noticed one other interesting parallel that fits in with the "it's Deja MU all over again" theory. I like using the 7-day Williams %R as my goto oscillator. My sheets are showing a slight divergence after today's trading. MU trades up, but the Wm%R ticked up while in an overbought condition. That's not necessarily unusual in and of itself, but volume of >10 mil. shares puts 2-day vol >18 mil., for me, a rough "serious short covering/throwing in the towel" threshold. Can you guess the date of the last time MU traded over 18 mil. shares in two days AND showed that type of divergence on an up day from an overbought Wm%R? date vol change Wm%R close 970805 10856200 + 4 5/8 4.95 56 1/4 970806 9163000 + 1 1/8 12.71 57 3/8 (reverses on +; breaks 10) 970807 8672300 + 1 11.11 58 3/8 (higher, but WM is > on 8/5) 970808 5889100 - 1 5/8 23.14 56 3/4 (breaks 20 threshold) 970811 5256000 - 1 5/8 44.13 55 1/8 970812 8368800 - 4 5/8 92.73 50 1/2 970813 23762900 - 7 7/8 94.90 42 5/8 (Kurlak nukes it) 980203 8503000 + 2 9/16 4.96 37 13/16 980204 10232400 + 3/16 11.81 38 (reverses on +; breaks 10) The problem here is - no Kurlak to nuke it. But I still think we're close to where the covering stops pushing it up. Good trading, Tom