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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (174543)	7/9/2021 11:33:46 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By maceng2 Respond to of 217711

It's annoying, but here's a vid touting that angle... with the most recent comment: Cathy Wood did NOT say there would be an 84% crash! At least NOT in this video! After that one, the comments on this vid are, like often at Zerohedge... better than the content. The issue being overlooked by Woods, and many others, is the "relative to what" issue... while ignoring things like the ongoing issue with Reverse Repo... and what it means... Back in March / April... the same people calling "inflation" now were all saying "crash at any minute" ? It isn't really an either / or choice in that intrinsic way... rather than a "pick one" situation... as far as policy goals and outcomes that can be managed... But, not all of the parts there are ABLE to be selected and managed? They (did not really) think inflation "transitory" for two reasons... both wrong. First, because the stimulus as a monetary driver is "temporary" and will soon wear off. Yeah. Just like QE is "temporary" and will soon be withdrawn... circa how many ever years ago it was that QE I still seemed like a good idea ? Reality is Biden will not get all his spending dreams realized... but reality is he doesn't have to for inflation to ramp much higher than it is now... the pace (and ill-considered timing) of the spending ramp has already ignited an inflationary feedback loop. Second, they thought inflation would be "transitory" because "V(irus) Shaped Recovery Time, Baby." But, two things... the virus isn't going away... and, the recovery isn't arriving... because mercantilist systems are fragile... so you don't just turn them off in a shock and then turn them back on and have them work... meaning... they are right that the inflation is in part tied to price increases related to one time costs of restoring broken functions... but are completely wrong about how big those costs will be... how long they'll be sustained with ongoing "fixes" to fund before functions are restored... and how much inflationary flow through will result from that bolus of non-discretionary spending to just to restore pre-pandemic functions... never mind funding any real growth. And, of course... just like the markets turn on a dime now... "crashing" one day... new highs the next ? So the narrative turns re inflation... which since the issue first came up has been addressed by the Fed as "transitory"... that the same meme pushed at the time Cathie got fed her "backgrounder" on the situation ? But, that's so last week... What are they saying today ? IMF Chief Warns Of "Sustained" Rise In US Inflation Fed Finds Inflation Is "More Lasting But Likely Still Temporary" Fed's Daly Warns Delta Variant Could Be Central Bank's Next Excuse To Delay Rate Hikes So, Covid Thursday is followed by Rate Relief Friday... Stocks Soar To All Time High As Bonds, Bullion And Bitcoin Bounce Like it never even happened... again... Cathie seems to be missing that the market has tried to crash repeatedly since March... but they won't let it. But, for interesting take on it... "happening some time"... ? Look at the monthly chart of the S&P... all the way back to 1998... and note the patterns in the prior bear markets and crashes... in 2000-2003 the bollies pinch, and the market drops from 1500 down to 750... but took three years to do it. In 2008-2009... a replay... bollies pinch, market drops from 1500 down to 750... but does it in one year. Then, after 2008... layers of "controls" have grown, "plunge protection" has ramped up... and markets don't go down anymore... at least, not for long. Note that 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2020 mini-crashes are barely a blip... but, also note the slope of the ongoing rise... since 2016, and especially 2019 ? Because... clear sailing... this is far and away the best market environment you've ever seen... ? Inflation happens... when real markets for goods and services encounter financial conditions that require prices to rise for businesses to rationalize the business... Market crashes happen... when stock markets get over-extended... and everyone finally realizes it... as when the expectations for higher... whatever drives them... are suddenly... realized to be wrong ? The two aren't directly linked, otherwise ? Markets often crash... when rates rise enough to be certain kill the markets future profit potential.... ? This week... markets were crashing... because rates were crashing... went up when they rose ? Why the opposite land linkages now ? And, what does Reverse Repo have to with it ?