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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (174567)	7/10/2021 7:30:13 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 217688

The most convincing statistical analysis I've seen recently... Points to the probability that the Covid is following two well known and well worn paths, as time moves on... The first is a two fer... as true of other virulent bugs... that they tend to become more transmissible over time... and also tend to become less dangerous over time. The first is certainly true of Covid. One of the reasons that it may not have become a bigger issue sooner in Wuhan... is that the first variants might have been less transmissible and more likely fatal... making it spread more slowly at first, person to person, one at a time... What they now call the alpha variant... appears to have morphed into something more transmissible... spawning the Wuhan hotspot. If the bug is so dangerous that it kills everyone who gets it... it doesn't get very far. The 1918 flu epidemic is a bit of an outlier in that routine expectation... as it started out as a bad but "normal" flu... and then mutated into much more of a killer... So, that's also a possibility... but it does not appear that the Delta has done anything like that...yet... rather than sustain the trends into less potent by more transmissible. That doesn't mean that yet to emerge variant Echo won't pair the transmissibility of the Delta variant with some new spike protein... or something else... that makes it more of a killer... But, then... also the risk that new variants will not be slowed down by the shot... but might well exploit the changed immunity functions enabled by the current vaccine... and kill everyone who got it... That's a real risk... inherent in the nature of the coronaviruses... and amplified by the approach taken to the targeting of the proteins they've addressed thus far... The second... is that the Covid, like others before it, does seem to be defining its own relationship to common factors in how it is transmissible... with seasonal patterns in variation. The ongoing rise in cases likely has something to do with the new variant... but it is also carving a pattern on the calendar that's pretty familiar. Saw another, unrelated, presentation... in which the author claimed that our current "seasonal flu" is really still an echoing remnant of the 1918 flu... saying that before 1918 the flu wasn't that big of a deal... and that since 1918 the flu has persisted... become more seasonal and more transmissible and less dangerous... but still while retaining the potential for variations... making some flu seasons worse than others... I don't have a reason to argue with the logic of that view... but I don't know how you would argue with it... without an ability to track the genetic variations of the mutations from 1918 forward... and, perhaps I'm wrong, but I doubt we can do that...