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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (110236)	7/14/2021 10:27:03 AM
From: Goose94	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 203382

Gold: Bullish Prospects Improve. Aug Gold Today’s continued recovery above last week’s 1819.5 high reaffirms our bullish count and buy recommendation at 1810 discussed in 06-Jul’s Trade Strategies Blog and leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 1791 and 1750 the market is now required to fail below to threaten and then negate this specific all. Per such, these two levels represent our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which a resumed bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed. From a longer-term perspective, only a glance at the daily log chart above and weekly log chart below is needed to see that this market remains deep within the middle-half bowels of the past 11-month range where the odds of aimless whipsaw risk remain high. Such range-center condition warrant a more conservative approach to risk assumption that emphasizes tighter but objective risk parameters like 1791. The reason we want to err on the side of the bull however is that until and unless the market breaks 08-Mar’s 1673.3 pivotal low and key long-term risk parameter, the price action down from Aug’20’s 2089 all-time high looks corrective/consolidative and warns of an eventual resumption of the secular bull trend that preceded it. While we fully expect a resumption of the secular bull to 2100+ levels, there is no telling how long this market could waft aimlessly and laterally within the 2089 – 16730-range. Herein lies the specific reason for a tight, conservative but objective risk parameter at 1791 to protect bullish exposure. Until and unless such weakness is proven, further and possibly accelerated gains should not surprise. Finally and from an even longer-term monthly log basis below, it’s easy to see the sell-off attempt from last year’s 2089 high as well within the bounds of a major (4th-wave) correction within the still-developing secular bull trend. The Fibonacci fact that Aug’20 – Mar’21’s sell-off attempt stalled at precisely a minimum 38.2% retrace of Aug’18 – Aug’20’s (suspected 3rd-Wave) rally from 1167 to 2089 would seem to reinforce this long-term bullish call. These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 1791 deferring this call enough to warrant moving to a neutral/sideline position to keep powder dry for a preferred risk/reward buying opportunity. In lieu of such sub-1791 weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains should not surprise. RJO Market Insights