Re <<It turns out the original Covid strain was not near as infective as thought and only infected 17% of family members of active cases.>>
Just as I feared, a toss up. Let's say there is a 100% chance of infection upon close-enough contact with total stranger in enclosed space (elevator, room, or touching the same signature pen at the bank) but lessened by hand washing sanitising, not-touching-face, use of mask, etc etc to 50%. For whilst I am not in position to judge the comparative risk of infection (relative to say the common flu), but I intuitively would not rush toward a 17% risk of infecting my family as there be smaller and smaller but still consequential risks (symptomatic, hospitalisation, etc etc, LT Covid, death).
Against above risks and consequences, the line up, nature and efficacy, of vaccines, lessening the odds of infection, serious illness, hospitalisation, death, and the short / LT / cumulative side effects of repetitive use of the vaccines, single of mixed flavours.
For now I wait, whilst social-distancing, masking in public spaces and not swimming, and not-travel, for more of something, and for less problematic vaccines.
Re <<That is one of the reasons my initial estimates were so off.>> best guesses at each enveloping stage are helpful even if off, and followed up by agnostic watch & brief.
Re <<I thought it was much more infective and would blow over like a wild fire.>>
In comparison to what we MIGHT be experiencing now or SOON again, a flash-burn-through arguably would be comparatively merciful to society and less destructive to peoples lives.
What we have now by my interpretation is that we are marking time against a dangerous-enough and loitering phenomena that we are not in safe stance of able to actively defend against (by vaccination and by cure) even as folks believe they are, all the while we shimmy and shy, zig and zag, at the beckon & call of politicians responding to the loudest lowest common denominator clamouring.
Re <<You could have had Covid>> I should at some juncture, after it all blows over, take a definitive test just to know. As of now, knowing the information is at most interesting (I had or not), but at worst misleading (I carelessly rush into the mist only to catch a second helping), so best assume I have not had Covid, and behave accordingly, carefully.
Re <<input mega data ... process>> ... like many am watching and taking in data. Right now I do not like the looks of all the evolving alphabets and the politically weaponised noisy non-solutions that further complicates an already not-simple happening. It is less helpful to have noisy foxhole mates than it is to have apartment mates with bad habits, especially when the enemy is nearby.
And, thankfully, the thread has been more helpful than not, as far as I am concerned, to keep the cafe chatter as useful as cafe chatter, and keep processing about several vectors, from the Covid to in- / de-flation to etc etc.
I see that Litore Lapis Message 33399612 cited something about <<More Vaccinated People Are Dying of COVID in England Than Unvaccinated – Here’s Why>> that struck me as counter-intuitive, and so I best do a read through just in case the facts are true, interpretation valid, and it all matters, because I do not know, and remain agnostic.
Okay, read the article scitechdaily.com and seems in line with what you advocated from the get-go, that folks in high-risk group ought to be isolated (and presumably vaccinated first once such became available), and everybody else should get on with their lives within reason. |
