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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (30870)	7/17/2021 12:54:09 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	1 Recommendation Recommended By robert b furman Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97451

I will add to your argument that we would have to mine 10-20 times the existing output of lithium, copper, nickel and rare earth minerals to be able to reach the targets for EVs matching existing ICE car sales. I saw an article a couple days ago talking about this and even if we could find that much, then ramp up the mines to go get it, the environmental damage in doing so would be mind-blowing. So much for being green. Lastly, you have to figure out how to dispose of the old batteries. The pundits talk about recycling but after decades of trying to recycle regular waste, we still dump most of it in landfills because it just isn't economical. Of course the answer is artificially jack up the costs to force the issue but that just hurts everyone and opens the door for more bureaucracy, corruption and waste. They just raised our fuel tax here in Missouri. Another step in raising the cost of owning an ICE vehicle. Just keep raising the cost of oil, gas taxes etc until EVs look competitive. Meanwhile, no one has answered how the roads will be funded when the gas taxes are gone.

To: robert b furman who wrote (30870)	7/17/2021 3:09:55 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 97451

It's not how I feel. Volkswagen is going all electric by 2026. GM is aiming to be all electric by 2035. Ford says 40% of its global sales will be electric by 2030. media.ford.com BMW sees 50% electric sales by 2030. cnet.com These are large companies that plan their lineups years in advance and make huge investments on those decisions. They are not going back to the way things were. The Japanese makers have been slow to adopt electric vehicle platforms on a large scale, but that will change now that Japan is requiring all electric or hybrid cars by 2035. Much of the switch to electric cars is market driven. Some is government mandated, but eventually, this was going to be where the market was headed anyway. Since the average age of a car on the road in the US is about 12-years, that means that ICE engines will continue to be a large proportion of the US fleet until maybe 2042, when electric light vehicles will likely be the majority (more than 50%) of the nearly 300-million light vehicles on the road in the US. I suspect by 2050, probably 98% of the light vehicles being driven in the US will be either electric or hybrid.