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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (9447)2/4/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
 
RE: Your experience illustrates why it is so important to keep in mind that the price you
pay determines your rate of return -- the lower the price, the higher the return; the
higher the price, the lower the return. It's so simple a fact that one might wonder
why I should even say it!


---

Dipy the argument is wrong because it is hiding the assumption that the holding period will be the same.

Buying low and waiting say 1 year to make 20% (a pretty good rate of return) is not better than buying a bit high and waiting 1 month to make 15% or heck like the last couple of days have proven 15% in 3 days. Whatever people may say if there is no "momentum" involved good money can become dead money. Dead money is risky because of the cost involved of not being in the market/sector for the time interval involved.

Having said that I do not buy things just because they are going up. They have to be financially strong (some sort of backside protection or margin of safety as Graham/Dodd would say) and have a promising future (or some expectation of increasing profits).

All this means is that I'm not a full value investor. Instead I need to have some sort of kicker included and I'm no longer afraid to pay up if need be. There are fantastic value investors - Heartland and FPA Capital (Rodriguez ?) are excellent examples but there are many ways to skin a cat and funds like Brandywine and Harbor Cap. and Oberweis show that value investing is not the only way to make money.

My argument about value investing is that you are betting against the market hoping that over a longer time frame than the market's you'll do fine. With investing/trading over a shorter time frame you are believing in the market's moves and that the price is going up for some consensus opinion that is favorable. Of course for the same reason that a value investor's stock will eventually go up, a pseudo-momentum trader's/investor's stock will eventually trend down - sometimes fast. But you have to really know what you are doing to get this right. And most people don't have the slightest clue.



To: sea_biscuit who wrote (9447)2/4/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: Daniel My Brother  Respond to of 25814
 
Dipy...thank you for your sincere advice. I have learned some valuable lessons on this ride down with LSI. It's the second time I've done this with LSI. Last year I made money because I didn't sell when it went to 17, but I had bought at 30, then sold at 44. So I made money....until I got a little greedy and bought again at what I thought was a great price (maybe a few others did too) 42 7/8. I didn't follow my discipline of selling when the stock goes 1 point below what I bought at....of course if you remember this stock dropped in some big chunks. It's hard to take those kind of losses...especially if you have some fundamental reasons that this stock will sometime trade higher....anyway.....thanks for your advice!