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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Imran who wrote (12216)	2/4/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Rediculous comments <eom>

To: Imran who wrote (12216)	2/4/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 77400

O.K. I'll elaborate. However, I will never say that your position is wrong. Your trades are your business... but regarding your statements: Chambers yesterday forecast 30-50% growth rate, last year it was 40-70%. Next year it will be lower. Don't you think the large investors already know this? Meanwhile companies like Lucent, Ascend and COMS are getting their houses in order. LU will be a worthy competitor no doubt. COMS's business is low end lower margin and will find it difficult at best to "swim upsteam on Cisco". ASND.... they get bought before the end of 98...perhaps LU or IBM? Also you have potential competitors like Compaq and IBM who might start getting into the arena. What this will do is cut into CSCO's profit margins. Nothing.. Compaq? How? Remeber DEC sold thier networking business. IBM? With what? They'll have to do some heavy buying to make this happen. Also remember most every acquistion they've made has been a failure. I agee that one should never underestimate the competition but the only real competitor you pointed out is LU... I'd add NT and perhaps some PBX manufacturers such as Alcatel or Ericsson. With this in mind I believe CSCO is fully valued at current levels. You need to look at overall market penetration to make this assumption. This has been a slow year (relatively) in infrastructure build out. As IP backbones/nets begin delivering multiservice functions and as the Internet picks up outside the US..as well as ATM and frame relay we'll see huge expenditures for networking equipment---both carrier and enterprise based. Cisco is FAR from being fully valued IMHO. Gary