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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Winklhofer who wrote (16869)	2/4/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: Al Serrao	Respond to of 50167

Thomas, I did a lot of studing over the years trying to find a leading indicator for interest rates on the long bond. Nothing was as reliable as the price of Gold. It generally leads by 3-6 months. I never try to out guess it nor do I choose to ignore it and i don't try to time gold purchases with it. It did tell me in Nov 96 to buy bonds and utilities when no one wanted them and it did tell me last month to sell bonds and utilities when every investment advisor on CNBC was saying you should own them. If Gold keeps moving up , I will become more aggressive and buy puts on the long bond. It works for me until someone can find me something more reliable. Good luck and please let me know if you find anything better.