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To: neolib who wrote (42144)7/27/2021 7:58:48 PM
From: VattilaRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 72281
 
AMD 2021-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.63 EPS on $3.85B revenue
Q2 outlook: $4.10B ± 0.10B revenue

RankUserEPSRevenueQ2 Outlook
1rzborusa$0.63$3.92B$4.16B
2gvatty$0.62$3.78B$4.15B
3Pravin Kamdar$0.62$3.72B$3.92B
4Joe NYC$0.61$3.86B$4.25B
5Kelvin C.P. Wang$0.65$3.90B$4.30B
6neolib$0.60$3.74B$3.95B
7Vattila$0.60$3.70B$3.90B
- Zacks Estimate$0.54$3.62B$3.78B

Again, we all left Zacks far behind! Congratulations to Rzborusa for hitting bullseye on the EPS for the second time in a row — an unprecedented feat! Honourable mentions go to Gvatty and Joe for the closest outlook and revenue, respectively. Thanks to all for playing!

And kudos to AMD for yet another stellar quarter!

See below for the updated leaderboard for 2021.

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Previous Quarters 2021


AMD 2021-Q1 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.52 EPS on $3.45B revenue
Q2 outlook: $3.60B ± 0.10B revenue

RankUserEPSRevenueQ2 Outlook
1rzborusa$0.52$3.33B$3.43B
2gvatty$0.51$3.35B$3.50B
3Joe NYC$0.54$3.35B$3.45B
4Vattila$0.50$3.30B$3.40B
5engineer$0.50$3.28B$3.51B
6Kelvin C.P. Wang$0.55$3.40B$3.60B
7neolib$0.56$3.40B$3.47B
8Pravin Kamdar$0.48$3.25B$3.55B
- Zacks Estimate$0.44$3.21B$3.28B

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Scoreboards

Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.

AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores

2021 Leaderboard







Rank User Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
1 Kelvin C.P. Wang 2 0.48 0.45 0.42 0.4510
2 gvatty 2 0.49 0.42 0.43 0.4495
3 rzborusa 2 0.50 0.42 0.41 0.4409
4 Joe NYC 2 0.48 0.45 0.38 0.4368
5 neolib 2 0.47 0.43 0.38 0.4271
6 Pravin Kamdar 2 0.48 0.37 0.41 0.4173
7 Vattila 2 0.48 0.38 0.35 0.4004
- Zacks Estimate 2 0.42 0.33 0.29 0.3465
8 engineer 1 0.24 0.18 0.21 0.2111







2021 Quarterly average







Rank User Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
1 Kelvin C.P. Wang 2 0.95 0.91 0.85 0.9020
2 gvatty 2 0.98 0.85 0.87 0.8990
3 rzborusa 2 1.00 0.84 0.81 0.8819
4 Joe NYC 2 0.96 0.90 0.76 0.8736
5 neolib 2 0.93 0.86 0.77 0.8542
6 engineer 1 0.96 0.73 0.84 0.8445
7 Pravin Kamdar 2 0.95 0.74 0.81 0.8346
8 Vattila 2 0.95 0.76 0.69 0.8008
- Zacks Estimate 2 0.85 0.66 0.57 0.6930


AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

2020 Full year scores







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Vattila40.950.850.650.8169
2neolib40.980.800.610.7972
-Zacks Estimate40.940.790.620.7856
3Pravin Kamdar30.720.620.500.6128
4rzborusa30.690.570.470.5812
5Kelvin C.P. Wang10.240.230.170.2150
6jc47410.230.190.190.2020







2020 Quarterly average







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Kelvin C.P. Wang10.960.920.690.8601
2Pravin Kamdar30.960.830.660.8171
3Vattila40.950.850.650.8169
4jc47410.920.740.760.8080
5neolib40.980.800.610.7972
-Zacks Estimate40.940.790.620.7856
6rzborusa30.930.760.630.7749


AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores

2019 Full year scores










RankUser


EntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
-Zacks Estimate


40.990.970.960.9708
1Vattila


40.980.960.840.9264
2Pravin Kamdar


40.980.950.840.9258
3rzborusa


30.730.700.700.7106
4neolib


30.730.720.650.6977
5knykny


20.490.460.400.4496
6gzubeck


20.460.370.320.3822
7THE WATSONYOUTH


10.250.240.250.2468
8FUBHO


10.210.200.250.2199
9Harvey Allen


10.200.170.250.2058










2019 Quarterly average










RankUser


EntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1THE WATSONYOUTH


11.000.961.000.9871
-Zacks Estimate


40.990.970.960.9708
2rzborusa


30.970.930.940.9475
3neolib


30.970.960.870.9303
4Vattila


40.980.960.840.9264
5Pravin Kamdar


40.980.950.840.9258
6knykny


20.970.930.800.8991
7FUBHO


10.840.801.000.8796
8Harvey Allen


10.800.671.000.8230
9gzubeck


20.920.730.640.7643



To: neolib who wrote (42144)7/27/2021 8:09:42 PM
From: VattilaRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 72281
 
Nice analysis. You shouldn't have discounted your numbers, as your calculation was on the money, EPS in particular. :-)

PS. Deducing the 60% full-year growth outlook was particularly impressive. Well done!