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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (68218)	8/3/2021 5:41:59 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 78478

I suspect the revenue numbers might be low (vs the commodity prices) since many of their customers 'forward' order their products a year ahead to lock in the then current price. That was sort of the story, but even with some forward pricing baked in the realized prices for Q2 look too low. And the UAN management indicated that the forward sale at lower price issue was a Q1 issue and would abate in Q2. Their UAN price was $237, and spot has been $300 for a few months, so it's hard to clearly understand how they sell and price their products. Management is not good at explaining, often their answers to the few questions do not explain things clearly, which is a shame. If prices remain at this level, all these forward contracts will/must use the higher rates. Yeah, it seems so. Forward prices across the board now are above $300/ton for UAN. This current cycle (IMO) has legs and s/d last years not months. If so, UAN is super undervalued. My best guess is fertilizer prices rise from here, but what do I know?