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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (12227)	2/4/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

<< You are shorting just when the bull market seems to be regaining its legs >> Obviously if I had to do it over again I wouldn't have shorted C$CO. But it has gone up too far too fast (as the Naz has done) and will come back down when the market comes back down. To think that the market is just going to run away and carry C$CO higher and never come back down is ludicrous. The market may make a big run here but it is going to crash back down to reality before 1998 is done. This may be the last hurrah for the tired bull. << The semis are strong, the networkers are moving up >> If I thought there was a good underlying reason I would cover. But there is no underlying reason. The only reason is liquidity. Money managers have to put money to work and C$CO is one of the big blue chips out there so it's going to get $ poured into it. << Why short now when the odds are not in your favour? >> I think after this latest 35% rally that the odds are more in my favor of C$CO pulling back. There was nothing exciting about C$CO's quarter or CC to me. People were just relieved so much that C$CO wasn't as pathetic as the rest of the networkers so they threw money at it. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing "wrong" with C$CO. They should be commended for still growing 26% when most networkers had year over year declines. Just because they are the best in the industry doesn't mean that the industry is all that healthy. There was a slowdown in the networking industry in 1997 and it looks like it will spill into 1998 as well. Competition will be much more fierce in 1998. C$CO has already taken lot's of market share from the others so what do they have for an encore? I have yet to see what the encore will be. C$CO cannot just decimate everyone in the networking industry and then just move over and do the same in the telecom industry. LU and NT are more formidable than COMS, BAY, and A$ND. << Your upside is so limited (I don't think CSCO is going to fall below 60) >> C$CO can't even fall 4 points? You really are complacent if you think C$CO can't even fall 4 dollars. << and your downside is so huge >> How so? Is C$CO going to double in the next month and trade at 4 times it's growth rate? Is C$CO going to turn into a $130 billion dollar company from a $65 billion dollar company in short order? << (If the bull market cotinues to run) >> Ahh, a little hedging in your comments. You don't know for sure that the bull market is going to continue. You have been spoiled by 25% gains for 3 years straight. Do you think you deserve another three years like that?