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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (175996)	8/8/2021 11:41:03 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217795

I noted the bite taken out of gold Friday morning... I'm a buyer at 1700... Funny how "good news is bad news" in commodities... given you can't really have the good news without using more commodities. Gold, being real money, seems it isn't rational that it would be an exception... but, in silver, and copper... both "can't get there from here" without it... ? But, then, who ever said markets were rational ? The economy is suddenly booming now... which is why oil is back down under $67 ? The expectation seems to be... rates are going to rise and there will be no inflation because of a small uptick in the cost of borrowing... when no one is borrowing... and that will make the economy boom all the more.? I did note it already... that they've engineered this insane reversal in narrative into practice in opposite land now... so that rates going up are good... and rates going down are bad... and the bankers are laughing... "see, we can make you fools do whatever we want... even when you know we're lying"... ? Did see an article... showing a big spike in credit card usage occurring... Delta is a fizzle in the fear department... The shift ongoing... check the timing... entirely enabled by a throttling up in oil production... letting prices slide... and has shit all to do with interest rates and the Fed posturing. They're basically an irrelevant limp noodle now. Oil price changes do have near immediate economic impacts... they filter through to markets in two weeks to a month... more when change is tied to policy statements telegraphing the change as "not market price manipulation by traders" but planned production rate setting altering supply upward... Interest rate changes have economic impacts that, in a normal economy, take 4 to 6 months to make any real impact in a difference in throttling or goosing activity... This is not a normal economy... but is one that is already far more reticent to borrow... given the serial risks being imposed by bureaucrats making it impossible to make rational decisions about those risks. i don't think the Fed is who/what's driving the bus. We'll see how long the OPEC+ will let the price slide continue... if the re-acceleration of the economy persists enough that sustaining impacts of bottlenecks drive inflation to tick up again even with them throttling back... Note, I'm not a pessimist about the economy right now... it still has a really long way to go just to recover what was lost last year... never mind establishing any "real" growth... But, the Covid Crash didn't really do all that much in terms of correcting excesses in the way that corrections are supposed to correct excesses ? If anything... it made them worse ? So, optimism has limits, too... But, obviously, the MOPE view of the world... requires monitoring the efforts "they" make fostering fear... or the opposite in the short lived elation resulting when they turn the fear machine off for a week or two... Cynical me... notes all of that as seemingly the normal rotation, now, out of "all and only doom and gloom as the end of the world approaches" right back into "everything is great, has never been better, and is only going to improve forever from here"... So... more of the same... nothing really new... nothing really changed... But, October looms... with that long delayed talk about taxes getting closer all the time... Cans will be kicked to October, it seems... if far less likely to be kicked again, from there... with obvious distractions taking the focus off the issues... to all that other stuff... not going to work at that point... So, bigger distractions will be required... ? Anecdotally, again... spoke with the kids today... Son-in-law just hired two new chefs assistants and four new chefs... He's really happy about it, as the new guys are proven commodities, people he knows who've been wanting to work with him for a long time... jumped at the chance... All of them were already working... and left other jobs to join the team... Musings obvious... might well be generalized... that the rotation occurring in employment now, enabled by the turbulence left in the wake of the Covid Crash... is going to drub those at the bottom of the pile, the bottom defined in terms of those failing in earning the respect of customers and employees... People as parts... seen as a proxy for other things with parallels in the economy... ? Moving parts... all with greater degrees of freedom ? Parts having free choice... means the disruption experienced ensures the old parts won't go back together seamlessly... and you won't have things grind back to life and resume right where they left off... But, change also ensures that the good parts... will attract more good parts... shifting the systemic costs of the Crash and the need for making improvements on to the bad parts... who will have to create new parts by starting from scratch... Pirating the best from others... means improving in relative position at their expense... without any real cost borne yourself... as all the costs of your improvements are all borne by them ? The advantage may be short lived... as it will be if the opportunity won or the advantage gained is mismanaged, or squandered... as it won't occur again ? Better cmpetition that survives... will have made similar moves ?