To: sea_biscuit who wrote (9460 ) 2/4/1998 7:36:00 PM From: shane forbes Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25814
Dipy that's good! ---Here's Briefing.com's sector rating which is a near term slightly outperform and which should be read carefully. Asia's problems are still very real and now we have Iraq as well. If you believe the downward earnings revision reason then LSI's price momentum is in trouble. In November, we downgraded the sector to a slightly underperform rating to reflect the market's anxiety over future earnings due to the unfolding crisis in Asia. The group performed horribly through year-end. But the story has changed over the past several weeks and the chip group is now the best performing industry year-to-date (+21%). The explosive recovery stems from the newfound belief that Asian concerns were overblown. Though the industry will get sideswiped by the region's turmoil, chip companies will avoid a head-on-collision. In addition, renewed growth in Europe will help to offset some of the weakness out of Asia. Strong demand for sub-$1000 PCs and the expected release of Windows 98 should bolster PC sales in 1998 to northward of 15%. Another positive development is the modest recovery in DRAM prices, as some of the Asian suppliers have experienced production difficulties due to financial problems. Though DRAM prices aren't likely to sustain an upward push for long, the price change suggests that the worst is over. That sentiment sums up the improved tone in the group. But before rushing back into the sector it is important to recognize that the shift has been psychological, not fundamental. Despite the recent calm, Asia remains a region in turmoil. China and Hong Kong could be the next countries to devalue their currencies, thereby reawakening earnings concerns. Against such an uncertain backdrop, stock selection is key. One way to filter the potential winners from losers is to closely monitor the street's earnings revisions. Those companies that have had earnings estimates materially downgraded will have trouble sustaining any upside momentum. A few such names are Advanced Micro Devices, Cypress, Lattice and Motorola. Conversely, stocks with little to no change in estimates such as Intel, Linear Tech and Analog Devices are well positioned to extend their recent gains. Overall, Briefing is raising its rating from a 4 to short-term slightly outperform (2) and long-term neutral (3). Stocks: Advanced Micro Devices, Analog Devices, Atmel, Avnet Inc., C-Cube Microsystems, Cirrus Logic, Cypress Semiconductor, Intel Corp., International Rectifier, LSI Logic, Lattice Semiconductor, Linear Technology, Micron Technology, Motorola, National Semiconductor, Texas Instruments, Unitrode, VLSI Technology, Xilinx.