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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (13888)	2/5/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 94695

Hi Lisa: Here are the answer to your questions. (1) The ARMs, since the October decline, has not been more than one day early with a signal--except for the 4.75 at 7700 and the below 4 readings this week. (2) The ARMs 5-day index is calculated using the closing ARMs. So when you get a signal, you must enter the next day. In a number of the examples that I have provided, the next day were up-days. Therefore, I assume that you would not have been able to place a position at the closing prices of the previous day. (3) The ARMs 5-day index never gave any false signals during the period I covered with my examples with the exception of the current one--which one could argue has actually worked. At least the strong rally had to catch its breath for a day or two. I have not looked at the closing numbers for the various markets but I believe today is the only day this week that could be considered a down day. I believe the consolidation has ended for a variety of reasons. However, I need proof which only time can provide. If certain things occur in the next few days, I may be bearish. Here is the formula for the ARMs. ARMs = Advances/ Declines---Divided by-- Advancing Volume/Declining Volume. I think I have said enough about this one indicator.