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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (176746)8/19/2021 7:01:36 PM
From: sense  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218068
 
Did look at gold charts again earlier today....

Look at the monthlies, and consider the context in what's known re fiat and frauds, market manipulations etc...

The best chart parallels are 2006-2007 and 2007-2008... with 2020-2021 nearing the closure of those patterns that ended with big up moves... From 2006 to 2011, gold from $500 to $1900... just shy of a 4X...

Ten years later... as the things they most feared in 2006-2011 are actually occurring... gold still trading below that ten year old peak ? Just apply the accumulated inflation impact ... taken as money growth... since then and... ???

Long term, gold looks set for another 3X or 4X, based on the charts... which naturally incorporate the factors in suppression and don't allow you to project what occurs when it ends...

But, 2008 to 2011 was an "attempt" to end it by implementing Basel III... while still keeping it under control by suppression... and they pulled the plug on it because it put the banks at risk of failure when the issue of having multiple owners for the same bit of gold were exposed... The drivers from then persist... only on forced hiatus until January... and, then... ? Just draw a continuation line of the trend from 2006 to 2011... and tell me why that's not the right focus to have in making any upside "post manipulation" projections... to a new peak?

U.S. Debt to GDP from 62 to 107 in that time... still better than others... but, the debt itself a 3X in that time... and the debt doubled from the peak in gold in 2011... So, ignoring both the dynamics and trends as well as the impact of ongoing manipulation in suppression throughout that entire time ? Still suggests golds low side projections should be a double from here... but, reality, a double plus whatever 2011 would have done without disrupting market functions... plus what the trends and dynamics now require in discounting future risks... not only of debasement... but of fraud and manipulation imposing currency collapse...

Easy 2X plus... is still assuming the dollars in a price conversion sustain value...

As that's not a tenable assumption... ???

And, the wild card... in "resets" that devalue currencies and remonetize gold... at a high enough price to allow the banks to fill in the hole that is, they hope, the final grave of their prior failures... which history suggests is highly implausible...

For that... pick a number on the scale of the black hole in derivatives... and determine a price of gold required to revalue it high enough to have the restated value of the gold held by banks fill in that hole ?

Looking at daily charts... there is substantial effort being exerted now to try to hold gold down... and it is looking more and more like trying to hold a balloon underwater... not really working too well... the metrics in "suppression effort" and "not working" both apparent in the charts...

Since the June 7 handover of suppression efforts to the control of the BOE... brutally abusive trading... leaving clear tracks in the charts... No reason gold isn't trading at 1940 - 1960 right now... other than the manipulation in the suppression effort.

A trend line from the lows of Mar-Apr to the highs of July... about the low end in what you should expect as price trend that almost has to be fulfilled... usual caveats, etc., and timing always... a ????

I think the low in August, clearly failed... making Mar-Apr and Aug a double bottom... should be clear enough as charts... short term...

Charts don't control BOE choices in how to practice the frauds they will between now and January ? But, that January date seems it converges well with experience in prior long term chart patterns... patience for a couple of months seems useful... but likely won't take that long given recent events... as we track into January expecting... huge effort to make January not matter... and then... ???

I do think WHEN it moves higher... it might move a lot... and quickly... as is typical from second legs in long term bull markets...

Look at 2006-2021 as a first leg, with a long "pause" inserted from 2011 to now ? Then, leg 2 should project to the continuation of leg 1... moving quickly up to 3800... before moving higher...

Otherwise, ignore the "pause" and extend only the recent patterns... you still get a quick 1000 points higher as likely to happen in a fairly short time...