Tropical Storm Henri Will Likely Bring Rain, Wind and Storm Surge to Parts of Northeast; Hurricane Warnings HoistedTropical Storm Henri is strengthening into a hurricane over the Atlantic and will track toward the Northeast, likely making landfall in southern New England or on Long Island late Sunday.
Residents of the Northeast U.S., especially New England and Long Island, should monitor Henri's progress closely since it may bring wind, rain and storm surge impacts to parts of the region late this weekend into early next week.
Storm Surge Alerts
A storm surge warning has been issued for the south shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach eastward to Montauk, on the north shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay eastward to Montauk, as well as from Greenwich, Connecticut east to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard and Block Island. A storm surge warning is issued when there is a threat of life-threatening storm surge within the next 36 hours.
A storm surge watch has been issued for coastal Long Island from Mastic Beach and Oyster Bay eastward to Montauk Point, from Flushing, New York to Greenwich, Connecticut, and from Chatham, Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. This watch is also in effect for Cape Cod Bay.
Wind Alerts
A hurricane warning has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island Inlet and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward, as well as from New Haven, Connecticut, to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A hurricane warning is issued 36 hours before the first onset of tropical-storm-force winds
A hurricane watch continues for Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard and Block Island, and from Watch Hill, Rhode Island eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. A hurricane watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas Sunday, with tropical storm conditions by early Sunday.
A tropical storm watch has been issued west of Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey to East Rockaway Inlet, New York, including New York City. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.
Current InformationThe forecast trend includes more impacts in New England with each successive update from the National Hurricane Center.
Henri is located 695 miles south of Montauk Point, New York, or midway between Bermuda and the Carolinas, and is moving north-northwestward.
(MAPS: Track Henri Here)
Henri has been battling wind shear and dry air. However, wind shear is expected to begin to weaken later Friday and Henri will be tracking across very warm water. This should result in strengthening, likely into a hurricane.
Forecast Track, Intensity UncertainHenri has turned toward the north-northwest and is expected to turn toward the north by Friday night. Its forward speed will increase as it tracks northward Saturday. This more northerly track will be influenced by the steering from a ridge of high pressure over the north-central Atlantic and an upper-level disturbance over the eastern U.S.
Henri's circulation center is likely to move within the forecast path shown below, but whether this track is directly into New England or a bit farther west or just off the East Coast will be determined by the outcome of the steering pattern mentioned above. Impacts will spread well beyond this cone.
 Current Status, Forecast Path
For now, the National Hurricane Center forecasts Henri to be weakening from a Category 1 hurricane to a strong tropical storm as it approaches New England because the system will encounter cooler waters and some possible increased wind shear during that time.
Henri's forward progress could also slow down on approach to New England because of blocking high pressure to its north over Quebec.
Potential ImpactsThe bottom line is that Henri could bring wind, rain and storm surge impacts to at least parts of New England and Long Island beginning as soon as the late weekend. Those in New England and Long Island should keep up to date and make preparations for possible impacts.
Storm Surge
Tides will also be running higher than normal this weekend due to the full moon, which could worsen the impact of any storm surge flooding. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide could cause the water to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
-Watch Hill, Rhode Island, to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound: 3 to 5 feet
-Chatham, Massachusetts eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Cape Cod Bay: 2-4 feet
-East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Montauk Point, New York, the north shore of Long Island and from Flushing, New York, to Watch Hill, Rhode Island: 2 to 4 feet
-Cape May, New Jersey, to East Rockaway Inlet, New York: 1 to 3 feet.
Wind
Tropical-storm-force winds could reach southern New England by Sunday morning and could be prolonged once they arrive. Hurricane-force winds are also a concern in the hurricane watch area for Sunday.
The strongest winds will likely be focused east of the track of Henri's center.
Keep in mind that impacts can occur quite a distance away from where the actual center of Henri tracks.
 Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Rainfall
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, are expected over Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday. Heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding and small stream flooding. Much of this region has experienced a very wet summer and recently received heavy rainfall from the remnant of Fred, meaning flooding is a significant threat.
The heaviest rain from Henri is expected to be along and west of its track.
High Surf, Rip Currents
Increased swells are expected along the East Coast by late week into the weekend.
High surf and life-threatening rip currents could impact beaches from parts of the Southeast to the mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. The high surf and rip currents will then spread northward up the East Coast this weekend.
 Forecast Wave Heights
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