To: Don Earl who wrote (7148 ) 2/5/1998 3:57:00 AM From: Bill Harmond Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 27307
Don, I think that was a very thoughtful post. However I don't think most investors in Yahoo are the type that take their clues principally from CNBC, nor are they the types that usually cut and run at the first sign of trouble. Yahoo wouldn't be trading at this valuation otherwise. Yahoo is consolidating here. It well might get into the low 50's again, though today volume dried up on the decline so I doubt it. Yahoo is losing relative strength relative to the general market, but it did the same thing last spring...trading sideways for a couple months while the broad market advanced. A silent correction that works out on the basis that short interest is far higher than any insider selling pressure. The market knows that some insider selling is inevitable after this earnings release because of last Fall's stunning advance. It's dangerous to assume, though, that a big decline is in the cards, because the fundamentals are so compelling. There aren't many Yahoos around, just like there aren't many Amazons. It's reasonable to expect Yahoo to mark time for a while while the rest of the market catches up from its correction. Shorting Yahoo has proven to be a damaging game, and I don't see any reason for that to change. Perhaps Yahoo will fool everybody and just rest here until the trendlines catch up. All the moving averages still point upward, so as long as Yahoo remains technically sound, I see no reason to plan on much of a decline. You can bet, though, that a lack in advance will just cause more short-sellers to pile in thinking a lack of momentum equates with weakness, and one day the comeuppance will be quite devastating for them. Yahoo is in a bull move. Who would imagine that Yahoo would be this close to its highs after a violent tech correction. Closer to its highs than Compaq or Intel. Imagine! Yahoo reminds me so much of AOL in its early years. Outrageously expensive, lots of "hold" ratings from analysts, while it took out successive generations of short-sellers. I know of one prominent software analyst who has a price-based hold rating on Yahoo who's open to an excuse to recommend buy again. I'm sure he's not alone. As I implied earlier, there's only one Yahoo. Nothing compares. As long as that remains the case, there is plenty of patient big money willing to ride it out for the story to unfold. Fidelity doesn't care whether Yahoo goes to 50. So here's to 50! I'd love it so I could grossly overweight Yahoo in my portfolio. But I doubt I'll ever get such chance. Great, expensive stocks rarely give you such a chance. They just seem to move away from you.