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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (10645)	2/5/1998 3:33:00 AM
From: William L. Oppenheim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

The studies on TA are not all bad. MA's can work to a slight edge, and at the very least you end up moving with the trends, not against them. I look at them but I concur that more money is made with time, not timing on one's side.

To: RGinPG who wrote (10645)	2/5/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I agree that sitting around trying to forecast military and political considerations is counterproductive, but I believe that understanding them is one of the essential keys to understanding this sector. Ron, I looked back at messages posted during the last week in January, and the tone from TA afficianados was exceedingly negative. As I recall, one went so far as to (tongue in cheek) suggest changing the index from the OEX to SUX. One week later the tone changes to one of cautious euphoria after the market for the drillers starts to move up. I see from your profile that you are a physician, and must therefore have a reasonable grounding in science. All I'm asking you to do is to apply those same tools of analyis (the scientific method, including the reproducibility of results, double-blind testing, etc.) to TA, and I think you'll agree with me that there is no credible evidence in its favor. I know its hard to sit and do nothing in the face of volatile markets, especially when they are moving against you. But to be a truly successful investor, that is precisely the discipline you need to nurture. Churning your investments is the fastest way to lose money! Regards, Paul