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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (34688)	2/5/1998 7:39:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ---------------------------- The short-term technicals for the overall market is extremely high and definitely in CLASS SELL territory and there were plenty of confirmation signals that the market should go down - BUT the futures are up this morning at 6.5. As I have always stated before, news/fundamentals over-ride the technicals. According to the media, they are saying that the overseas markets are in rally mode. Europe is in rally mode, but the Asian markets overall were up, but are actually topping off. It appears that many European investors and we will also interpret Asia as still being in rally mode, but technically they are topping off and giving signs that they will cool off very soon. HK was up 1.35%, but it actually gapped down at the open and was a SPINNING TOP. JPN was up .71%, but it also gapped down at the open and was also a SPINNING TOP. In candlestick talk, both patterns are reversal patterns to the downside, although for the day they were up. Korea was down 3.51%, and was a simple big BLACK day. Malaysia and Singapore and Thailand were up big. Well the perception will be that Asia is still in rally mode, which is how Europe is perceiving it. Europe is now up big, so I am presuming that this is the news which will over-ride the technicals today. The market will be topping out soon as I have been saying for awhile, but for the PUT players like myself, at least for today - DON'T BE A HERO AND STAND IN FRONT OF A MOVING LOCOMOTIVE. gggggggg Right now I have 3 postions: 1) WFC FEB 320 PUTS - If WFC pops up at the open, I will be closing them, fortunately they are quite profitable now. 2) XAL FEB 710 & 700 PUTS - I will be watching these very carefully and may not close them. The price of Crude was up slightly this morning indicating that CRUDE is bottoming and technically is forming the double bottom, suggesting upswing in the price of CRUDE to start soon. The main reason for the XAL to have such stellar earnings this past quarter was the huge drop in CRUDE, but once FUEL starts increasing again it should move down. But be careful, the market is a live locomotive, at least for this morning/today. 3) OSX MAR 90's CALLS - Well with CRUDE rising slightly/bottom formation and the overall market in rally mode I will be holding. The next resistance lines for the OSX are 107 and 114. At this time feel that the end of this up cycle should break 107 and could approach the 114 mark. As for breaking 114, its too early to tell and most likely would need help from CRUDE moving up convincingly in price. The market is extremely rosey and in rally mode again, if we go with the indication of the futures - BE CAREFUL for those on the long side. When it does pullback, it may reverse harder than most would think. I strongly feel that FEB expiration week will be an arbitrage situation, in light of my belief that there will be a high volume of CALLS expiring in FEB, in light of this rally. Would appreciate any comments on this issue. If I am correct, and if the market does not turn now/next day or so, then I strongly feel that the reversal downwards will start, latest, near/during expiration week. What a screwy market. gggggggggggggg Seeya