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To: Thean who wrote (10649)	2/5/1998 1:19:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Thean, if I understand your post, you have conceded that TA has no valid mathematical or statistical underpinning, but it is still useful in the hands of a skilled practitioner. This may be the case, I don't know. If so, we need to have an "expert systems" analysis brought to bear on the problem, so that we can discern exactly what it is that these skilled practitioners are doing. In the mean time, I stand by my statement that it is useless from a practical point of view. You do make one very serious error though by assuming that moving averages have any meaning as predictive functions. Since the underlying function is mathematically undefined, it is clear that MA's have no predictive power. Where does 200 day MA come from? Why not 2000 day or 20 day? You said in your post that you were invested in this sector since 1996, and have beaten the odds with a trading strategy. May we subject this to a test? Assume that your initial investments in 1996 were held through today with no intermediate buying and selling. What would their annualized return (including dividends received, if any) have been. Now compare that return to the return on trading strategy you did adopt, including tax consequences and transaction costs. I look forward to reading your comparison and analysis. Regards, Paul