Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (33447)	2/5/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: Duke	Respond to of 61433

Ok, Ok I believe you the deal is in the works, that why I'm not touching my share at all, I'm holding all the way. So what is your estimate price for the deal? Duke.

To: Tim Luke who wrote (33447)	2/5/1998 11:08:00 AM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 61433

Last week I stated you could say goodbye to the 20's and say hello to the 30's. Now why do you think that this has happen???? Its not by luck or a whim so when I tell you that a deal is in the works you can laugh it off if you like or you might say Hmmmmmmm. "Unless" you are lucky enough to get in on the tail wind when it takes you will be lest standing with your pants down. Tim, If you have been hyping ASND because you think a deal is in the works -- as is explicit in this post -- then I think you are badly mistaken and the people who listened to you took a real risk if their decision was based solely on that factor. If anyone has looked at the NASD of late, or the NWX index, or my chart of selected network stocks, it is clear why ASND is up: The entire sector is doing well, with the momentum building all this week. In fact, many network stocks have outperformed ASND lately. Under your logic, all of these other outperformers have a "deal in the works" as well. It is my opinion that there is no buyout "deal in the works." Here are some of my reasons: 1. Ashby explicitly stated that ASND had not retained an investment banker, a step typically taken when a company is looking to sell. 2. ASND is spending considerable dollars on an MIS infrastructure capable of supporting a $3B to $5B company. If a hand-shake deal were done, why waste the money? I'm sure the acquirer would like as much of ASND's cash hoard as possible (and would use its own MIS system to boot). 3. ASND mgmt knows that it has ATM is booming, that it has an exceptional product to meet that need and that it can win RBOC and CLEC customers. Mgmt. also knows that this translates into double-digit growth in 2H98 and probably in 1999 as well. So, all this talk of $40 or $42 or $45 per share as a buyout price seems to be something mgmt. would never even consider. 4. Things were different in September/October. ASND then was viewed only as a RAS company. RAS was down. ATM had not taken off. The market did not see the value in CSCC. For all of these reasons, an offer of perhaps $48/share might have made sense then, and might have been accepted then. Not know. Please don't take offense, but to some degree I find you to be a trailing indicator of ASND's prospects. When things were blue in December, you had no use for the stock whatsoever and you virtually urged abandonment of it. Those who had done some investigation saw the merits in the stock and in its upcoming product announcements. They held (fortunately, as it turns out). Similarly, it seems to me that your recent hype about a buyout "deal in the works" would have been more fitting in September-December, when there is some evidence that something actually was in the works. That's just my two cents. Gary Korn