From e-mail trays this day
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 09:07:33 AM GMT+8, J wrote:
Re <<Jay has lived through this, or close to it>>
I make some casually random observations, that the recent toppling, dismantling, and disposing of the General Lee's statute is some event of cultural revolution lite-edition, and we must watch & brief to see whether (1) 'they' go after books by burning, and (2) go after live people.
So far the American cultural revolution is at best insincere and not-at-all serious-yet, and not even a Boston tea party, or Philadelphia powwow.
There seems to be a remiss, a sort of genesis-all-spark missing.
Perhaps the return of Trump 2024 shall energise societal respite into action mode.
Baby steps first.
Babies grow up, and do not tend to stop venturing at the cusp of foyer, in either direction.
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 08:58:46 AM GMT+8, J wrote:
Re << Who will buy their bonds? threadreaderapp.com >>
... all who does not instead buy T-bills.
And all who buy T-bills must be reckoning, and likely correct, that negative yields on tap.
But if negative yields baked-in, then how much longer until the end-gaming?
Watch & brief.
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 08:44:38 AM GMT+8, M wrote:
Who will buy their bonds?
threadreaderapp.com
Best,
M
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 08:50:03 AM GMT+8, J wrote:
(1) Recently the skinny Jack finally got somewhat enthusiastic w/ his kung fu lessons, a skill prospectively more handy than Coconut's ballet training, and certainly far less inflationary, but as we have to eat lunch either before or after class in Causeway Bay, I figured best feed him at the should-be disinflationary food court of the City Super market in Time Square. Jack for whatever reason discovered steak (we heretofore simply do not eat slabs of beef), bear-drinking meat from Japan, Australia grass-fed meat, America free-ranging meat, etc whatever, and whilst far less dear than Cocomut's ballet tuition, studio work, summer travels, cultural immersion, etc etc, still very noticeable. Good thing the Jack has not discovered Champagne.
(2) Erita should be applying to college, and may do so, at least in moderation, and I must torture self by looking at the prospective bills. I am terrified. Need gold to go to 5,000 or some crypto to head to $3.00, else difficult to make the math work.
She got accepted at a ballet school in NYC, with her 4.00 GPA and perfect ACT / SAT test scores, and won a full scholarship. She might decide to take a year to do the ballet school and apply to college from that platform. If so, I 'just' need to fund airplane ticket and NYC living expense. Jack tilted his head upward at his sister and noted, "but erita, that is just a one year vacation!"
Very difficult to BS the Jack as he is full of it himself.
Coconut believes she wants to 'study' film, and Bloomberg reported that film is the most expensive and least useful degree one can work for.
Folks invited by my wife commented that if one wishes to 'do' film, then just do, and skip the degree entirely.
(3) On inflation of construction, we (my wife) Covidised our backyard last year, paved w/ commercial grade tiles, planted fruit trees, put up an steel and glass gazebo, etc etc etc, and all items sourced directly from China factories recommended by friends and put up by HK labour. Against original quotations, would say the wife 'saved' 66% off of rack rate.
The gardener wife uses goes for half of HK rack rate.
(4) I am noting that Peking and Tsinghua Universities go for 3-5K per year, and likely better in every way except the parties.
(5) I checked out a new residential development adjacent to Ocean Park near worth-less industrial buildings. HK$ 30K per square foot, on up.
I am dubious re transitory / transient / tame inflation. Call me grumpy.
(6) At the same time I am jazzed about Core Comrade Jinping's internally coherent program now rolling out in great splendour. Should the program be successful, we are saved by proxy, as the wastrels all across the planet must face the music along with the guillotine, and tell the people, for the people by the people even if against other people why it be that they cannot do better. Should the program fail, gold goes to 5,000. Win-win outcome.
Let us raise our glasses to Once-in-800-years China-rejuvenation enabled Common-prosperity wired together w/ quantum-5G-IoT-2025-manufacturing, rolled out by One-belt-One-road Eurasia-connectivity facilitated by Greater-Bay-Area initiative tagged w/ HK-Qianhai-expansion proto-effort preceding One-country-Two-systems HKSAR 50-additional-years-no-change possibility, turbo-boosted w/ continuing rural-land-reform-one-off-money-reservoir-release-over-time hyper-charged w/ FED-no-way-can-taper-existential-calling, events might work out well enough.
Power to the people! Power to the enduringly protracted effort to save the world, to return to the good old days, 1421 :0) Zheng He amen
| | Zheng HeZheng He (Chinese: ??; 1371 – 1433 or 1435) was a Chinese mariner, explorer, diplomat, fleet admiral, and court ...
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On Friday, September 10, 2021, 02:14:40 AM GMT+8, G wrote:
More that it simply breaks and can not be repaired. Part of Disposable society.
Buy cheap and throw away after xx years. Most dont even try to repair.
The appliances and toold , during last 10 years are built with kightwr materials , integrated units (in many case can not even access ) , electronic circuitry etc
Vs old ones would have been able to repair
Simple examples.
We have samsung freezer
Where parts are horrendous expensive. So one part of freezer is 25% cost of new freezer , not including labour (if you do not know how to do yourself - though youtube good for learning )
Even more basic things like hot water tanks.
My uncle who is trained as plumber. Said in old days would get 15-20 years.
Now less then 10.
Intend to agree with comment that we are simply not depreciating the capital costs quick enough. So upfront spending not inflating. We are just getting less duration , for what we spend.
Take even something like patio furniture.
Sure purchase price on avg is down or flat , as many imports come into market.
But quality is just not there. So good for a few seasons. And then to the garbage dump.
On 9 Sep 2021, at 10:47 AM, f wrote:
G, sorry to disturb you:
I hope you are well.
And realise real life is much less then older versions of same products
Do you mean the new appliance is less durable and that maintenance cost is higher?
Thanks
MF
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 06:57:55 AM GMT+8, C wrote:
Dear MF. I have replaced and repaired several roofs now.
On the flat roofs, it is recommended to recoat (3), 5 or 10 years....depending on the quality of coating. Also there is a need to regrout certain areas on certain types of roofs. Also sun damage on wood beams, etc is a 5yr maintenance update. Good paint and coatings allow beams to last longer.
Yes, you can ignore beams for 15 -20 years and then just replace them. We have one neighbor with crumbling beams and cracking sidewalls. Funny they are next to a 5mn house going up. Any buyer would have to buy their house for about 1mn (650k 10 yrs ago or about 1m 15 yrs ago), knock it down and spend 1-1.2m minimum. ... or they could have reinvested over the years and sell it for 1.5m in good condition.
(Partial knockdown with quality refurbish would be 700k now)
Good 5ton aircon unit. Used to be 13k now going to 17k. But you will be waitlisted for 6-12months at moment. Only choice is to replace compressor and hunt for parts.
Water heater 7-12 years...
....
If you don't want to redo roof in one year, you can stop gap a short time with sealants.
Usually roofs will warp and puddle and crack after time. Silicon coatings last longer. The warranty will be 5 years but will last up to 10 years -- average case.
I have done all of these. One horrible experience a few years ago was redoing tile roof on 25yr home which also included flat roof portion. Poor labor required a second job.
Doors in full sun in the US Southwest develop holes and cracks unless well painted on regular basis.
Tile roofs are more expensive but last longer. But when tiles start to break this becomes a problem. Especially after big storms.
At moment there is a tile shortage. My roofer friend says he has been informed he will not get his allocation. Not that it matters, as he cannot get the staff to work all his contracts ...
On Thu, Sep 9, 2021, 11:00 AM MF wrote:
Roof replacements/repairs 5-10yrs
Dear C,
There is a huge difference in cost of repairing a roof and replacing it. How many years is a roof supposed to last in the US?
Thanks
MF
From: C
Sent: Friday, September 10, 2021 12:46 AM
Subject: Re: Comments: Week of June 14th
I did the math on rentals.
-- normal annual maintenance
-- HOA where applicable (up alot)
-- property taxes (which go up alot)
-- Roof replacements/repairs 5-10yrs
-- Aircon/heat units 7-10 yrs
-- Landscaping
-- Floor resurfacing
-- other...
Then I wrote a piece on how Case Shiller was bunk. Most of the people who downloaded the article -- like 200 times -- were the S & P guys who bought the Case Shilker Index. I think they adjusted definition over time, but I would not think they adjust or know how to adjust properly. Especially retroactively.
On Thu, Sep 9, 2021, 9:08 AM G wrote:
Especially as one buys a dishwasher or freezer or air con unit. And realise real life is much less then older versions of same products
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 01:46:50 AM GMT+8, R wrote:
Xi also appreciates how Trump has motivated the Chinese military to wake up, the "lay flat" youth to get up and work, the brain drain to return to the motherland instead of being treated like criminals, the exposure of weak supply chain links so they need what to fix ....... on and on.
On Thu, Sep 9, 2021 at 10:18 AM G wrote:
Putin could never have hoped for a better outcome when he bought trump !
Well more likely took control of trump, by having knowledge of all the other russian "dark money" that had used trump to launder it for them
Was a lucky coincidence to have mountain of dirt on the man.
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 01:18:47 AM GMT+8, B wrote:
Of course, none of this has to happen.
Some folks are very happy with their current situation. We are fortunate to be one of that group.
Others are not. Some are unhappy enough to become Antifa.
Others unhappy enough to vote left.
Usually these folks are not educated accurately, if at all.
In a democracy enough unhappy folks can change the system, and perhaps for the worst.
The group that is unhappy enough to believe in "by any means necessary", contributes to election fraud and worse.
Jay has lived through this, or close to it.
I would rather skip it, thanks.
On Thu, Sep 9, 2021 at 11:06 AM R wrote:
Gazing at the night sky, some of the distant stars have already burnt out while the light is still working its way to our naked eyes. The Empire of the USA, as we know it, has already failed. It is a matter of time before it will be replaced. I think we stand a reasonable chance of seeing it happen, just hope that we do not get bulldozed by the change.
I think the most likely event is if Trump announces his run of presidency. (I am not pro any candidate, Trump or otherwise) That should drive a wedge so deep into the already divided states of America that it has no chance of not splitting. If he announces tomorrow, you can pretty much count on a crippled government/country immediately.
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 12:41:59 AM GMT+8, G wrote:
Usa and canada. Has suddenly innoculation everyone with neo-socialism. Stay at home and someone pays you. No risk to get evicted
Why work ?
This was breaking straw on top of multiple generations all thinking that they work too much. And deserve more
Sorry to say but rome is burning
Is like watching a sports team squander a lead. So hard to not scream at the screen
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 12:38:33 AM GMT+8, R wrote:
Went to the local "Little Sheep" hotpot joint last week. Bill was almost US$140 for 3. As with most of you, it would not deter us from eating out but the amount is noticeable. I don't remember what it was before.
More alarming is the lack of labor. Every minor job involves begging workers to come. I had to fire a painter who was only randomly showing up, dragging a 4-5 day job to over a month before I gave up. Replacing a simple fence involves being on an 80 days waiting list.
Most disturbing is the deterioration in healthcare. A friend is suffering from severe back pain with the risk of total paralysis. Surgeon is pulling out all the stops and has been trying for over a week to schedule the surgery on an emergency basis. Finally, the surgery is now scheduled over two weeks from now, but only on a tentative basis. Lack of staff is the primary reason for the phenomenon.
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 12:43:07 AM GMT+8, B wrote:
Since the quality is being maintained, actual inflation is reflected in the price.
Miele can no longer be compared in this product line.
The Sub zero is basically the same product with minor improvements.
Aprox 2004 price $13k+, current price approx $18k+ .
Price has increased to 139% of what it was, which averages 2.6% per year. My guess is
the increase is skewed more toward current years, or is yet to be reflected.
From: B
Sent: Friday, September 10, 2021, 12:27:45 AM GMT+8
Subject: Re: Comments: Week of June 14th
We have handled this by buying quality. Of course, for personal use, not for rental use, as we are not in that game.
Some of what we have bought is no longer made, but still holding up well: Miele for washer dryer combo. US home sized products ceased manufacture aprox 2016.
Subzero (top of line) refrigerator/freezer. Visible parts 95% stainless, very little plastic, only light and switch covers, dual compressor system.
Both require maintenance infrequently, but when required relatively expensive, but if neglected, really expensive.
So, always on the lookout for quality, and if can be picked up at a discount, or on a real sale, so much the better.
On Thu, Sep 9, 2021 at 10:08 AM G wrote:
Especially as one buys a dishwasher or freezer or air con unit. And realise real life is much less then older versions of same products
On Friday, September 10, 2021, 12:06:21 AM GMT+8, C wrote:
My conclusion from looking at Case Shiller type indicators is they understate the role of cost maintenance, which means the index overstates the real rise in value -- because the deflation component is understated. Just like with Inflation indicators... LT data series are very misleading.
There is a need to find assets that increase in value without significant maintenance costs... or the cost is paid by someone else.
From: M
Sent: Thursday, September 9, 2021, 11:49:02 PM GMT+8
Subject: Re: Comments: Week of June 14th
Same here.
Biggest shock after being away from the US for 3 years is the huge price hikes - whether houses, cars or groceries (especially proteins like beef and chicken).
Best,
M
On Thursday, September 9, 2021, 11:45:36 PM GMT+8, G wrote:
Indeed. Reality is alternative can not come on fast emough
As looks like china will have to ration natural gas againt this winter. Discussing already to curtail for industrial / commercial users
In this group. I am curious what people
Think real rate of inflation is
My guess it is closer to 15%.
I have been away from canada for 18 months. And i am shocked at the price of everything
From groceries, to housing , to cars ....
I am sure we will face huge eage claims as workers say that they can mot make ends meet etc
On 8 Sep 2021, at 11:58 PM, a wrote:
On Target newsletter
<Coal is quietly booming. China, the biggest source of greenhouse gases, has announced it’s resuming operations in 53 mines to produce 44 million tons a year to satisfy growing calls for power. Prices for thermal coal have skyrocketed to record levels.
In the US, too, coal is booming despite Biden’s plans for “green” energy. Consumption in power stations is predicted to rise 17 per cent this year.>
On Thu, Sep 9, 2021 at 1:58 PM T wrote:
COVID-19 will never be over. The nature of respiratory viruses.
On Mon, Sep 6, 2021, 19:16 J wrote:
I wish Doc Doom Marc will tell us that everything will be okay and work out fine
Marc Faber: ‘Dr Doom’ Predicts Very Hard Times Ahead For Economy & Financial Markets (PT1)
|  | Marc Faber: ‘Dr Doom’ Predicts Very Hard Times Ahead For Economy & Finan...
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"Central Bankers Are Criminals" Marc Faber Warns "Once COVID Is Over, The Elites Will Go To War"
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Legendary investor, economist and market forecaster Dr. Marc Faber thinks central banks (CB) are not going to cut back the money printing. Just the opposite.
He predicts CBs are going to print even more money at a faster pace to hold the failing economic system together for a little while longer. Dr. Faber explains,
“What is perceived to be safe, namely cash, isn’t safe anymore. It is unsafe. You ask me what is safe? I don’t know what is safe anymore when you have money printers who print money indefinitely. I don’t think they can stop. I actually think they have to accelerate their money printing. So, stocks may go up, but in real terms, it doesn’t mean your standard of living will go up. Maybe the standard of living of the 50 richest people in the world will go up, but not the standard of living of the typical American . . . or the average American. That standard of living will go down. . . . All the money printing is a desperate measure to keep the voters from rebellion.”
Dr. Faber predicts that not only are we going to see more asset inflation, but dramatic wage inflation too. Dr. Faber, who holds a PhD in economics, says,
“What I think will happen, and most people have not really considered, we will get wage inflation. For the first time since the late 1970’s, we will get accelerating wage inflation, and in some cases, quite dramatic. In some states, the minimum wage is $15. I could see that going up to $30 per hour very quickly. I don’t think inflation is ‘transitory’ (as the Fed proclaims). We will not have stagflation. We will have something worse. We will have rising prices and a depression in the standard of living of most people.”
Dr. Faber says the U.S. stock market is “overpriced and over-owned.”
He likes stocks in foreign countries, real estate “far outside the cities” and physical gold, silver and some cash. Faber also likes some crypto currency in one’s portfolio.
Dr. Faber is less worried about the economic picture and more worried about the rise of socialism and communism in the western world. Faber contends socialism destroys economies and liberty. Faber points out,
“I can tell you one feature of all the socialist countries I have visited in my life, and all of them had less freedom, less happiness than we have, and the standards of living were substantially, not a little bit, but substantially lower than they are in the free capitalistic world. . . . I am sorry to say that I think the western world has gone down a very dangerous path where essentially, through zero interest rates, everything is free. Then you get the unintended consequences.”
So, with inflation going up and the standard of living going down in the West, is the possibility of war going up? Faber says,
“Correct. I think once this Covid19 thing is over, the elite, the ones who make the money, will go to war. That is the last recipe to keep the population together.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Marc Faber of the “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.” 9.4.21
To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here
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In an additional interview, this time with Wealthion's Adam Taggart, Faber blasts Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell "as the lowest-grade bureaucrats I've seen in history."
"These people will continue to print money."
"The academics will say we didn't print enough."
"Central bankers are criminal."
As Mike Shedlock notes, Faber's portfolio is 25% precious metals, 25% real estate, 25% equities, and 25% bonds. Faber predicts cash will vanish, but will be replaced by "equally bad" central bank cryptocurrencies.
"Who do want to control your money," asks Faber.
"The beauty of gold and silver is nobody controls it."
Also, Faber says " don’t forget: the Fed will always lie, the same way US generals misrepresented the hapless conditions in Afghanistan to the world in order to keep the war-profiteering machine going."
And reminds readers to remember the words from Leo Nikolayevich Tolstoy
"In all history there is no war which was not hatched by the governments, the governments alone, independent of the interests of the people, to whom war is always pernicious even when successful."
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