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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (177959)

9/9/2021 4:39:55 AM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 217796

shall study what you wrote.

in the meantime, JPM has something to say w/r to just about everything. Please shout should you spot anything pointing to something existential. Cafe participants likely wish to make it across the line with less harm and bother.

Global Markets Strategy

Flows & Liquidity

El Salvador’s problematic experiment

By Nikolaos PanigirtzoglouAC, Mika Inkinen, Nishant Poddar, CFA, Ekansh Agarwal

While some technical issues are likely to be resolved over time, we think the chances that bitcoin will succeed in de-dollarizing El Salvador’s economy are low.

Coercion via Article 7 in the bitcoin bill is unlikely to succeed, as the willingness to transact or hold bitcoin would be a function of Salvadorians’ overall sentiment towards bitcoin.

El Salvador’s ill-conceived experiment should not be critical for the future of bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. Crypto markets suffered from El Salvador’s glitches this week, but that was from a frothy backdrop as we explained in our previous week’s publication.

Liquidity injections from the TGA run-down likely modest, and largely behind us.

CTAs cutting elevated longs in Bunds likely amplified the recent sell-off.

The shift towards passive funds resumed this year after a pause in 2020.

El Salvador faced technical issues on the first day of introducing bitcoin as legal tender. These technical issues should not be a surprise given the country had only three months to prepare for this grand experiment. In sharp contrast, China has been preparing/testing its digital yuan for years and has yet to officially launch it! While some technical issues are likely to be resolved over time, the chances that bitcoin will succeed in even equalizing the dollar as a parallel currency in El Salvador (let alone facilitating a full de-dollarization) seem low.

First, it is well understood that bitcoin faces some inherent challenges in serving as currency. It’s very high volatility of 70% annualized and the fact that is not backed by anything makes it difficult to serve as either unit of account or store of value (Figure 1). Few goods or services are priced or negotiated in bitcoin terms and bitcoin itself is priced in dollars. While retailers and merchants in El Salvador will over time accept and list prices in bitcoin, these prices are likely to fluctuate wildly according to the price of bitcoin in dollars. In other words, the unit of account would still be the dollar, and the best one can hope from El Salvador’s experiment is that more transactions would be happening in bitcoin and to the extent the uptrend in crypto markets is sustained more Salvadorians might hold bitcoin as store of value, i.e. as an alternative to gold. Coercion via Article 7 in the bitcoin bill is unlikely to succeed, as the willingness to transact or hold bitcoin would be a function of Salvadorians’ overall sentiment towards bitcoin, which polls suggest is generally negative.

Figure 1: Bitcoin volatility

Annualized realized volatility of daily returns

Source: J.P. Morgan

Click here to visit Flows & Liquidity Library on J.P. Morgan Markets.

Limited supply is another problem making bitcoin inherently challenging as currency. Due to limited supply, a monetary system based on bitcoin would be deflationary and thus unattractive and unsustainable to most economies. Normally, central banks by issuing money and increasingly money supply make fiat currencies inherently inflationary, i.e. the buying power of fiat currencies decreases over time and therefore the price of goods and services denominated in fiat currencies rises over time. Instead a monetary system based on bitcoin would be deflationary as bitcoin’s buying power would naturally increase over time given its limited supply and therefore the price of goods and services denominated in bitcoin terms would fall over time. In such economy, the incentive by economic agents would thus be to hoard rather than spend the currency. Borrowing and lending would also become problematic in such a monetary system where economic agents hoard the currency. This, along with its propensity for short-term volatility, was another reason of the collapse of the gold standard in the previous century. In the case of El Salvador, the banking system would inevitably be based on dollar lending and borrowing and the most we can expect from banks is that they would accept bitcoin deposits but would likely continue lending in dollars.

The technological challenges are equally problematic. And it is not so much about internet or smartphone penetration in El Salvador and the challenge of distributing El Salvador’s crypto wallet, Chivo, widely across its citizens. In our opinion, it is the reliance on the payments network of a private company, Strike, another layer over Lightning which by itself is a layer added to the Bitcoin network enabling transactions to be done off-chain that poses security and privacy risks. The risk is that these security and privacy risks outweigh the reduction in transaction costs.

Finally, the $150mn Government Trust to ensure immediate bitcoin convertibility to USD effectively transfers bitcoin price risks to the government and might not prove enough if a potential downturn in crypto markets in the future induces citizens to get out of bitcoin en masse. The question then is whether the government is obligated to keep topping up its liquidity pool, how they would do so and at what rate. This could create another drain on dollar funding for a country already struggling to meet its dollar financing needs. Of course, in a scenario where El Salvador’s experiment fails and Salvadorians do not transact or hold meaningful amounts of bitcoin, the government’s accumulated long bitcoin position would be naturally be small. However, even in this scenario of low domestic bitcoin adoption there is a possibility that bitcoin inflows from abroad, e.g. via remittance flows from Salvadorians living abroad, are converted to dollars through the government, creating both a fiscal and external accounts problem.

Despite the above challenges, the El Salvador experiment is undoubtedly an important moment for cryptocurrencies and payments systems mostly in terms of the lessons to be learned about the application to real life, and to a lesser extent in terms of investors’ sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. Clearly, crypto markets suffered yesterday from El Salvador’s glitches, but that was from a frothy backdrop as we explained in our previous publication.
Liquidity injections from the TGA run-down likely modest, and largely behind us

The sharp drawdown in the Treasury’s General Account with the Feds in recent months has seen questions resurface over how much liquidity this has effectively injected into the system. The TGA had already nearly halved from around $1.6tr in late January to $850bn by the middle of the year and further to around $500bn ahead of the ending of the debt ceiling suspension in August. Since then, as the Treasury has been utilising its extraordinary measures, the TGA has declined further to around $260bn on Sep 3rd.

This this brings the cumulative decline in the TGA since end-January to around $1.35tr. However, over the same period, the amount of outstanding T-bills has declined by around $915bn, suggesting that the liquidity injection from the run-down of the TGA balance itself has been around $430bn. This is little changed from our estimate of the liquidity injection from the decline in the TGA balance as it stood in mid-May ( F&L, May 18th), suggesting the liquidity injection since then has been very modest.

Until the debt ceiling is resolved, either via a lifting or suspension, the TGA will likely continue to see a gradual drawdown. How low depends in part on how long a resolution takes. For reference, around the 2019 suspension of the debt ceiling, the TGA reached a low of just under $120bn compared to the current level of around $260bn. But T-bill issuance is also likely to stay net negative, absorbing some of the liquidity injected from any further TGA drawdown.

Moreover, looking at the breakdown of the components of the Fed’s liabilities that have seen the largest changes this year, while decline in the TGA did initially see some increase also in the reserve balance from end-Jan to end-Mar, much of the continued drawdown up to late-July has been absorbed by the reverse repo facility. This is partly due to the fact that the Fed’s decision not to renew exemptions for reserves and treasuries from SLR calculations in end March meant that banks were less willing to continue accumulating excess deposits. And the reduction in outstanding T-bills essentially forced MMMFs to rely more on the Fed’s reverse repo facility. We have seen some return to reserve growth since mid-July, indicating some that there has been some injection of liquidity, but the impact that has had on bond markets looks modest given yields have if anything modestly risen since then. Given the already abundant level of reserves, a modest impact from additional liquidity injections is not surprising.

Moreover, over the medium- to long-term, QE and loan growth are more important determinants of liquidity. With the approaching Fed taper, the former is set to weaken as a source of liquidity growth. And while the ongoing economic recovery would likely eventually boost loan growth, thus far this year it has remained weak relative to pre-pandemic levels (Figure 4).

CTAs cutting elevated longs in Bunds likely amplified the sell-off

The sell-off in bonds, and in particular Bunds, in recent weeks has raised questions over how much of this move was driven by momentum investors such as CTAs. Figure 5 depicts the shorter-term and longer-term signals for both 10y USTs and 10y Bunds. It shows that the shorter-term signal for the latter reached quite elevated levels in early August and largely remained there until around two weeks ago. With the signal having turned form quite elevated longs to close to neutral at a z-score of just 0.26, an unwind of these elevated long positions likely amplified the sell-off. Moreover, the shorter-term signal for 10y USTs turned short on Sep 7th, suggesting yesterday’s move reflected in part CTAs starting add some short duration exposure. The signals for both USTs and Bunds are far from extreme territory that would risk triggering profit taking or mean reversion signals.

In equities, the sharp rally in Japanese stocks was likely amplified by CTAs who likely only had modest long exposure two weeks ago (Figure 6). Similarly, CTAs adding long EM equities exposure from Sep 27th onward likely contributed to the rally.

The shift towards passive funds resumed this year after a pause in 2020

The shift from active to passive funds appears to have resumed this year after a pause last year. Figure 7 shows while the overall shift to passive funds had paused last year after the pandemic erupted, it intensified this year, although mostly via strong inflows into passive funds rather than outflows from active funds.

The inflows this year have been equally strong among equity and bond funds. The share of passive in US domiciled equity funds rose to 49% vs. 46% at the end of 2019 according to ICI, similar to the average pace of increase of around 2.0 percentage points per annum over the past five years (Figure 8). At this pace, the share of passive in US domiciled equity funds should exceed 50% next year.

The shift from active to passive is a lot less advanced in the bond fund space and the pace remains slower. In fact the share of passive in US domiciled bond funds has flattened over the past two years to just above 20%, i.e. little changed from the end of 2019 (Figure 9). The slower shift from active to passive bond funds over the past year or two reflects the absence of selling in active bond funds. Instead Figure 10 shows that the stock of active US domiciled bond funds has risen sharply over the past year after remaining relatively stable over the previous five years.

Could the relative alpha generation by equity vs. bond managers explain the much slower shift from active to passive in bond relative to equity funds, in particularly this year? The answer is perhaps yes.

To demonstrate this point, we employ a new methodology for gauging the alpha of equity and bond funds. Our previous methodology, based on the proportion or magnitude by which the biggest active funds are outperforming their benchmarks, suffers from survivorship bias and likely overstates the true alpha as it fails to adjust for the underperforming funds that got liquidated, merged or simply shrank in size due to outflows over the years. Instead, our new methodology focuses on the return earned by mutual fund investors on aggregate relative to market indices. In contrast to ETFs, mutual funds are mostly active rather than passive. The methodology’s starting point is to calculate the AUM change of the aggregate universe of equity or bond mutual funds in each year minus the net flow (including reinvested dividends) and divide it by the AUM at the beginning of the year. We then compare this return produced by mutual funds to the price return of a market index. There are two advantages with this methodology. The first advantage is that it provides a measure of the effective return earned by mutual fund investors relative to the overall market. Second, mutual fund liquidations or mergers as well as manager fees should be reflected in the AUM of the overall mutual fund universe.

The excess aggregate return produced by the universe of mutual funds relative to comparable equity or bond market indices is shown in Figure 11 and Figure 12 for mutual funds domiciled in the US. There are three main messages from Figure 11 and Figure 12. First, in general mutual fund investors earned significantly lower returns than the market over the past decade. Second, the calculated “alpha” has been even more negative over the past two years. Third, the calculated “alpha” for equity mutual funds has been a lot more negative than bond mutual funds during both 2020 and 2021. This implies that better alpha generation is a plausible explanation for why bond funds have been showing a slower shift towards passive than equity funds.

To: sense who wrote (177959)	9/12/2021 5:14:11 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217796

A very lazy Sunday going by, and I needed the respite for I did much one or another way during the week. I took Jack to his Kung Fu lesson this morning and talked macro. I did a good lunch w/ my mom and my brood, hubbed around oxtail stew on one end and caviar on the other, and due to the champagne effects I then took a long nap. I love Sundays. The Coconut is doing her homework, readings, and also procrastinating by amusing Whiskey the kitten. Now the Jack is doing on-line construction (Minecraft) together w/ two of his visiting friends, and with other classmates by cyber-connect. I am perusing reads in my e-mail tray. The news flow, below an example, is un-good. Close to a perfect day. QUOTE Simply go to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and then click on the Subscribe Today button at the upper left of the home page. ************************* Today's Market Comments: Stocks fell across the board again on Friday, September 10th, on average to above average volume. The trend in the stock market is now clearly down. The decline started precisely on our recent Phi mate turn date, at the August 27th, 2021 closing top in the Industrials. The S&P 500 just experienced its worst week since February 2021. The decline in the Industrials from our Phi mate turn date through Friday, September 10th, has wiped out all of its gains acquired over the summer, since July 1st, 2021. The major stock indices closed at their lows for the day Friday, which usually is not good in short run. The August 2021 Consumer Sentiment Index reported by the University of Michigan, considered one of the best measures of sentiment, fell to its lowest level in a decade, since 2011, to 70.2, which was lower than the lowest level during the 2020 pandemic, the April 2020 reading of 71.8. Why? What has folks so concerned? People know. People see. People are not as stupid as the Master Planners and their minions think. I used to do correlation charts between the stock market and this U. of Michigan sentiment indicator for many years, and the data did show a good correlation existed, with sentiment a leading indicator. What is evident at this time, and is fair to conclude, is that there is a peculiar and dramatic Bearish divergence between sentiment (down) and the stock market (up) since July. Piled onto all the other Bearish evidence we see at this time; this is not good. So, what is the problem, from a fundamental economic perspective? Forgetting the technicals for a moment, one major basic problem is "Money for Nothing." Money is being printed by the Fed by 747 Cargo Carrier Loads, loaned to the U.S. Treasury for paper I.O.U.s, and handed out to a generation of people in a half dozen ways never before seen (for example, rent eviction stoppage, which translated means free rent; student loan repayment suspensions and interest deferrals and forgiveness; COVID direct checks for living and breathing; extended Unemployment benefits; along with the usual social entitlements) with the result being a massive disincentive to work. Forget about the moral or ethical judgments of sloth, the cold hard fact is this has produced a massive labor shortage. You want proof? Try buying anything. Online; in stores; wherever. "Item out of stock" notices. Shelves empty or pretending to be full by pushing limited inventory to the front row with little behind them. Car dealerships with little to no new cars. Furniture offered with photos, but with 6-month minimum waits for delivery because they have not even been made yet. Minimal housing availability as large mega REITs scarf up inventory with fast, above list, cash offers. Tricks by unscrupulous so-called sellers taking down-payments while you wait for purchases that may never show up. Beware of online sales by intermediary brokers who are not stores, do not have inventory, mark up your purchase price, promise a third-party delivery service to your home, but do not own the product. They have to go buy it in order to fill your order. Maybe they can, maybe they cannot. Food shortages are increasing. Paper products are in short supply again. Go to most businesses, and try getting someone to wait on you. Good luck. Why? Labor shortages resulting from a disincentive to work means lower productivity, means supplies shortages, means higher prices (not from increased demand, but from a shifting of the supply curve to the left (i.e., a lower quantity of supply), resulting in higher equilibrium prices), means higher inflation. This trend will continue from several news events we saw this past week, sure to exacerbate the situation. Sure to lower productivity. Before I mention them, let's understand one thing: Lower productivity means lower GDP, means economic destruction. Economic destruction means lower stock prices. First, the passage of the $3.5 trillion so-called infrastructure program, is largely consisting of entitlement enhancements, free money, which will increase the disincentive to work, lower productivity, increase shortages, lower GDP, weaken the economy and lower stock prices. Second, on September 9th, 2021, the public face of the man in charge declared an edict mandating that most workers must be vaccinated (injected) in order to have the privilege to have a job, to work, to earn a living for their family, to buy or sell. Depending upon the data feed, between 25 percent and 38 percent of Americans have chosen to not take the experimental mRNA (+ other mystery ingredients) implantation for religious; philosophical; abundance of caution; experiential establishment distrust; the basic human right to informed consent; and / or personal freedom of choice rights under the U.S. Constitution. Per NBC News, SHANNON PETTYPIECE AND HEIDI PRZYBYLA AND PETER ALEXANDER AND MONICA ALBA September 9, 2021, 3:30 PM : (Highlighted text per RM) "Biden will ask the Department of Labor to issue a rule requiring all employers with 100 or more employees to ensure their workforce is fully vaccinated or produce a negative Covid test at least once a week, said a senior administration official. The requirement could carry a $14,000 fine per violation and would affect two-thirds of the country's workforce, the official said." Speaking at the White House, Biden sharply criticized the roughly 80 million Americans who are not yet vaccinatedFurther, Biden stated, "We've been patient. But our patience is wearing thin, and your refusal has cost all of us," all but biting off his words. Biden will also order that the vast majority of health care facilities require their staff be fully vaccinated as a condition of Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement, a move that would affect 17 million workers at 50,000 health care providers, the official said. As of July, 27 percent of the country's health care workers were unvaccinated, according to a study by the Covid States Project. In the remarks, Biden is also expected to announce two executive orders requiring all federal executive branch workers and employees of contractors that do business with the federal government be vaccinated, according to a person familiar with the plans. Biden had given federal workers the choice of undergoing regular testing instead of getting vaccinated, but that testing opt-out will no longer be an option. "It's simple: If you want to work for the federal government, you must be vaccinated. If you want to do business with the government, you must vaccinate your workforce," the senior administration official said. Now let's do some math. What if Biden, Big Pharma, Fauci, Big Tech, and the Injection Police succeed in coercing half of the 80 million unvaccinated employed into taking the injection. That still leaves 40 million standing firm in their convictions, that are about to join the unemployment ranks. That is a huge number about to become unemployed. Huge. A devasting impact on the economy. This means fewer workers, and of course, given the above economics, substantially lower productivity, deeply worsening shortages, plunging GDP, and crashing stock prices. This is an astonishing dictatorial edict. This goes beyond socialism, and is in line with Communist / Fascist dictatorship. Something last seen out of 1940's Germany. Whether one chooses to get the jab or not, mandating it is quite another thing. This is an abomination that will lead to desolation. The point of all this is not to debate the merits of the jab, but to point out that with the current policies, whether one agrees with them or not, the fact remains that we are headed for an economic and stock market collapse like maybe never seen before. At least not in centuries. The economy could be headed back to the stone ages if this implantation mandate sticks. Smacks of Revelation 13:16, 17, in living color. Of course, getting back to the technical stock market patterns (which is the stock market telling us where it is headed next, because it has the accumulation of the total knowledge of everything on the planet reflected in its prices), the stock market has been warning for several years now that something awful is coming. We are now at the precipice of "awful." There is a good deal of evidence this weekend that the stock market has topped. In a major way. Let's take a look. The NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicators generated a new Sell signal. The small cap Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell. The Blue Chip three-component short-term key trend-finder indicator generated a new Sell signal. The Blue Chip Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Sell signal from a Buy. We have updated most charts for all markets we cover in this weekend's newsletter, showing wave counts from recent tops. Wave counts suggest more downside is coming, and if our degrees of trend perspective is correct, which patterns and wave counts support, a lot more downside is coming over the weeks, months and years. Of course, there will be corrective bounces along the way, partial retracements of developing declining waves, but we should see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows for a long time. There is a significant Fibonacci Cluster Turn Window approaching from September 15th, 2021 through 23rd, 2021, +/- a week or so. The current week just closed was inside this +/- range. There are seven former tops or bottoms that occurred a Fibonacci number of trading days from this coming six-day period of time. Often, significant trend turns occur when we see a large number of these former tops or bottoms a Fibonacci number of trading days within a tight period of time. If a prior major top or bottom is included in the Cluster, within a tight window, with a large number of past highs or lows, typically the more significant the coming turn. No guarantees, but the incidence of trend turns is pretty good when we see these. This particular Cluster is well represented with 7 former highs and lows, and a major low in the group. We show a chart with all details for this coming Turn Window on page 32. The stock market sits on a three observation "Official" Hindenburg Omen potential stock market crash signal, on the clock through December 17th, 2021. An official signal only requires two observations within a 30-day period. A signal with five or more observations has been associated with a higher potential for a subsequent crash. An Official H.O. is a necessary precondition for a stock market crash, as there have been none without one on the clock over the past 35 years. For the theory and past history of this indicator, we have an article at the Guest Articles button at the left of the home page at www.technicalindicatorindex.com . There is another "often seen" precondition in place that usually leads to major stock market tops and declines, as the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has formed a Bearish divergence with the NYSE stock index and the S&P 500. Patterns are the stock market speaking to us, letting us know where they are headed next. They are the accumulation of all knowledge on the planet from all sources, and the patterns identify the next major trends we can expect. Trannies have quietly fallen over 2000 points, 12 percent, since April 2021, and have formed a major Dow Theory non-confirmation with the Industrials that is not getting better, is not being fixed. This is not good for the markets' future, and is something to expect at a major developing top. Trannies are telling us there are serious problems with shipping, whether it is passengers or goods. As noted above, The NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line Indicator is diverging with the NYSE and S&P 500 Bearishly. But there are many other Bearish divergences in place. The S&P 500 has formed a large Bearish divergence with its Demand Power measure, and also its 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, suggesting a top is approaching. There is also a growing Bearish divergence between the Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500 that warns of developing trouble. Bearish divergences also appear in the NASDAQ 100 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator and the NDX 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator. Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal August 24th. It fell 4 points Friday (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 2. It will have to fall below negative - 5 for a new Sell signal. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal September 10th, 2021 and remain there Friday, September 10th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Monday, August 23rd. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 7th, 2021, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 9th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal. Demand Power fell 6 to 403 Friday, while Supply Pressure rose 6 to 417, telling us Friday's Blue Chip decline was strong. This DP/SP Indicator is on a Sell Signal from September 10th. Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments: Gold fell 7.9, Silver fell 0.28, and Mining stocks fell 4.02 Friday as prices continue to oscillate up and down. It is possible the final wave c-down of 2-down is underway. Once 2-down bottoms, a powerful and lengthy rally should follow. The HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal from Buy, as the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell, at odds with the HUI 30 day Stochastic on September 10th. Gold started a Bullish Cup and Handle pattern in 2011. The Cup portion completed a year ago, and since then Gold has been declining inside the handle portion of the pattern, which is the concluding piece. Once the "handle" bottoms, in the midst of all the drama that is coming, Gold should be headed sharply higher over the coming months and years. It could reach 3,000 as it rises, perhaps quite a bit higher than that over time, with corrective declines interspersed along the way. Silver is finishing a sideways pattern that should lead to a strong rising trend. It should track Gold. Mining stocks are working toward a bottom, and there is a Bullish divergence between the HUI and our HUI 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, so they also should track Gold down, then higher. Mining stocks are showing more weakness than metals at this time. In fact, in the chart we present on page 57, we show that the HUI has formed a compelling Head and Shoulders top pattern, which has a downside target of 190ish. This suggests Miners could initially track the stock market lower for a while as the next major stock market plunge occurs. Once the Fed starts pumping dollars after the coming stock market crash matures, Gold, Silver and Mining stocks should rally sharply. Gold could take the lead with Miners tardy but following. The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Neutral signal September 10th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal August 27th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell on September 10th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Sell signal August 6th. On Friday, September 10th, Demand Power Fell 2 to 364 while Supply Pressure Rose 2 to 395, telling us Friday's HUI decline was mild. DJIA/SPY PPI Down 4 to + 35.45, on a Sell DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 44.67 On a Sell DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 16.67 Slow 38.89 On a Sell DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 33.33 DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 16.67 DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 20.00 Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 4 to Positive + 2, On a Buy Demand Power Fell 6 to 403, Supply Pressure Up 6 to 417 Sell McClellan Oscillator fell to negative - 79.63 McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1268.32 Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 2.09, an "OFF" signal DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 34.8 on a Buy NYSE New Highs 110 New Lows 30 Today's Technology NDX Market Comments: The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Sell signal Friday, September 10th, 2021, and remain there September 10th, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on September 10th, 2021, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on September 7th, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on August 18th, 2021. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Buy signal Tuesday, August 24th and remains there September 10th. On Friday, September 10th, Demand Power Fell 4 to 431, while Supply Pressure Rose 5 to 429, telling us Friday's decline was moderate. The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 23rd, 2021, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 1.5 on Friday, September 10th. NDX Purchasing Power Indicator Fell 5 to + 334.61 On a Sell NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 46.84 Slow 53.16 On a Sell NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 37.97 Slow 48.86 On a Sell NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 1.5 On a Buy NDX Demand Power Fell 4 to 431, Supply Pressure Up 5 to 429 Buy RUT PPI Fell 3 to 200.87, on a Sell RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 115.2, On a Buy** McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades).