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To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (7952)	2/5/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Dovi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Hello all Sorry I don't have time to read all the posts to see if this was already mentioned. If you go to herring.com there is a Q article (February 4)that is interesting for us interested in the short term.

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (7952)	2/5/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Caxton, terrific post. Both those articles seem mucho important. If the Chinese are indeed "privatizing" at anything like the rate suggested, the implications are just enormous. Did you see yesterday's WSJ article on Japan and the attempts to reform their MoF? A guy from like Goldman Sachs, used to work with MoF, extensivie Central Bank experience (not exact details but the idea is he has big time credentials, now lives and works in Japan, no axe to grind) says that Japanese are taking money out of the banks and putting it under their mattresses! I am not making this up. He said flat out : The average Japanese is in PANIC. The WSJ said, "did you use the word PANIC?" And he repeated it and started to give examples like the mattress, and there were more. He actually had a positive spin on it because he said that it was this type of thing, and only this type of thing, that might actually cause the Japanese to reform their system, to get off their duffs and actually make a decision. (I knew right away he'd been reading Surfer Mike posts on SI, but figured I'd let him get away with it.) Money? Reserves? The Japanese have 'em 'up the bazoo' (thanks Michael) the problems is Systemic Reform and Paralysis. Now if the Chinese are going straight to system reform and reogranization while their economy is still relatively healthy, well then the implications for who's going to win the economic superpower of Asia award ten years down the road gets kind of interesting. The 2/2/98 issue of Barron's has Morgan Stanley Chairman Barton Biggs (can you believe that name?) suggesting that Japan may become the "Italy of Asia" simply because they cannot fix what's broken. Not that they don't know that it's broken. Not that they don't have a pretty damn good idea of what's necessary to fix it. Just that they can't undo 2,000 years of institutional rigidity. Biggs is about ready to throw in the towel. Last, would you please comment on this Columbia deal? This ain't the Congo and its in the $550MM range--now that's a big deal even if it isn't Paris. Yet at the end of the article it talks about IS136 which seems a long way from IS95. Are the Columbians going to dine on herring with the flat worlders? Mike Doyle