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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: margie who wrote (3748)	2/6/1998 2:26:00 AM
From: Joe E.	Respond to of 6136

Re: <<As far as being worried about Fortovase being 'better,' look at the data at a new web site: natap.com which is still under construction. Check 'What's New' and look at the index for Fortovase. It all depends which particular study you look at. >> This natap site got me to North Attleboro Tap Company. Did you spell the URL correctly?

To: margie who wrote (3748)	2/6/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Respond to of 6136

Margie, thanks for your detailed response. Your posts are a real service to the thread. Do you have the data supporting the market share numbers for December? If so, could you post them? re: Fortovase. My point is that from the limited information I have before me, Fortovase looks like it is equivalent in anti-viral potency to Crixivan and Viracept ... the two current standards in anti-viral effect. It may be as tolerable as Viracept, although I have limited information there ... with Viracept being the clear leader among marketed PIs in that area. If it's an equivalent product to Viracept, I would expect Roche to push Fortovase. If Viracept is a superior product to Fortovase (as it is to Invirase), then I would expect Roche to push Viracept. My comment on Roche's press release on the CHEESE study was simply that it was a reminder that Roche is in the business of selling its products first. If selling a lot of Viracept helps them, so much the better, but all things equal, they'd rather sell their own product. The CHEESE study was of course designed as a head to head study of Fortovase vs Crix ... and Roche quite appropriately was aggressive in pointing out the equivalent anti-viral potency and superior CD4 response of Fortovase vs Crix. With respect to royalty rates, I seem to remember a comment by AGPH at some meeting (analyst meeting in SF? annual meeting?) where the royalty agreement with Roche was described as follows: one rate for Roche sales of Viracept, a lower rate on Roche sales of its PI's, and AGPH receiving the greater of the two. Below are some previously posted speculations on the royalty rate itself. It seems like the royalty rate ramps on sales, and maybe on the order of 20 - 30% split 50/50 between JT and AGPH, but that's only speculation on my part. /* from PaineWebber, posted SI by John White PW (1/23/98) cont: "Sizeable market opportunity. We estimate that there are approx 400,000 HIV infected patients in Europe representing a sizable market.. We expect the pricing for the product will be similiar to the U.S. AGPH will receive royalties on product sales (we estimate 10-14%) that step-up with increasing sales. Agouron also recognizes manufacturing revenues from supplying Viracept to Roche. /* MF post by Larry Moss Subject: European royalties Date: Mon, Nov 24, 1997 6:31 PM From: LMoss Message-id: <19971124183101.NAA29510@ladder02.news.aol.com> I'd like to correct a couple of points made by margie, who usually posts on the SI Agouron thread but who also reads this board. In an otherwise excellent post, margie, you did misstate the royalty arrangement in an aspect that is not well known. The royalties to be paid by Roche are based on the greater of the sales of Viracept or Saquinavir, and not on the sum of the sales or profits. In other words, royalties are paid on the drug that sells the most, and not on the other. Also, Roche will pay royalties to both Agouron and Japan Tobacco. This is because JT (not Roche!!) paid about 50% of the development cost of Viracept. Your basic point remains valid. Roche does not have a strong incentive to push Saquinavir over Viracept. LMoss /* MF post by Larry Liebman To: Tom DuBois (219 ) From: Larry Liebman Thursday, Jan 23 1997 8:49PM EST Reply #220 of 2866 I keep thinking about the 13 million shares out and the potential e.p.s....Today's "BioCentury Extra", talked about the Roche/European deal...While I knew that AGPT/JT would potentially split $40 million as an upfront payment, what I didn't know was that analysts believe they will receive royalties estimated at 28%-30%...If this is accurate...With North America as their exclusive Viracept domain, and royalties of some 15% from Europe....What is the potential upside to this company's valuation?...I can see why the C.E.O. has been the proverbial "happy camper"..