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To: AreWeThereYet who wrote (807)2/6/1998 2:11:00 AM
From: Todd D. Wiener  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 886
 
The short interest increase is most likely due to the availability of options. While those of us who own the stock may buy puts to hedge our position, interested shorts may feel more comfortable shorting the stock while using calls as a hedge. It's an interesting strategy to short SMTC and buy calls. It could be verified by looking at the open interest in the $20 and $22.5 calls. It's not really important, IMNSHO (in my not-so-humble opinion). The stock will go up on the company's merits, whether or not the kitty tries to litter on the stock (archaic reference to TomKat).

Long-term attractive is slightly less favorable than an attractive (2). Attractive is similar to BUY (as opposed to STRONG BUY). Right now, SMTC has 2 STRONG BUYs and 1 BUY. This BA Robertson Stephens analysts has a slightly more realistic estimate ($1.23 for FY99) than the consensus of $1.22. My estimate is still $1.37 for FY99. I'm looking for $0.29 for Q4, which should be reported next week, maybe the 11th. This analyst will probably upgrade SMTC after earnings are announced.

Unless the earnings report is stellar, the stock will probably spend several more weeks working on the $28-31 range, after which it will make a run to the old high at $36+. This may not happen until Q1 earnings are released (I'm expecting a sequentially flat quarter of $0.29). Of course, we all know how inaccurate my short term price predictions have been, so don't be surprised if the stock blasts through to $40. I'll be shocked if that happens, though.

Unless I'm wrong, the reference to SFAM and a possible buyout was referring to NVLS, not SMTC, as a merger partner. SMTC and SFAM wouldn't make sense, whereas NVLS and SFAM would.

Todd